$840M ONDO Token Unlock Incoming, Will the Price Crash?

3 mins mins

Key Insights:

ONDO trades near key support as a $840M token unlock tests market demand and liquidity.
Price recovery follows a long downtrend, but volume remains modest ahead of January’s unlock event.
Analysts watch $0.25–$0.45 zones as new supply may increase short-term selling pressure.

*$840M ONDO Token Unlock Incoming, Will the Price Crash?*

Ondo (ONDO) was trading at $0.441, down 1.7% over the last 24 hours. The price has increased 16.8% in the past seven days, recovering from a recent low near $0.25. This recovery comes ahead of a major unlock event on January 18, 2026. Around 1.9 billion ONDO tokens, worth roughly $840 million, will be released into circulation. This represents about 57% of ONDO’s current supply.

The upcoming release has raised concerns in the trading community. With daily trading volume at around $115 million, the new supply could create pressure on the price.

Trader Joe Swanson commented,

“Traders are leaning long, but if real buying can’t absorb this supply, price weakness could follow.”

The upcoming 1.9B $ONDO token unlock (~$840M, ~57% of released supply) on Jan 18 will be a major test for demand vs sell pressure.

Traders are leaning long, but if real buying can’t absorb this supply, price weakness could follow.

Watch market reaction closely. pic.twitter.com/hljxlUmVHY
— Joe Swanson (@Joe_Swanson057) January 6, 2026

Downtrend Still Holds as Unlock Approaches

ONDO has been in a clear downtrend since October 2025, when it traded at $1.12. The token dropped nearly 80% to $0.2552 before bouncing back in recent weeks. The move to $0.45 has drawn attention, but current price action remains below key resistance levels.

Some market participants suggest the recent bounce may be a short-term reaction to the upcoming unlock. Without a rise in trading volume or broader interest, the recovery may not hold. If sellers take control as new tokens hit the market, ONDO could retest its previous low.

Accumulation Zones Could Offer Short-Term Support

According to chart analysis by Crypto Patel, ONDO was sitting in what he labels an “accumulation zone” between $0.45 and $0.35. He also points to a deeper support area from $0.30 to $0.25, where long-term buyers may be active. These zones are based on historical price reactions and Fibonacci levels.

Patel noted that the long-term market structure would stay intact as long as ONDO holds above $0.25. He mapped out a possible path toward higher levels, including $1, $2, and beyond, but stressed the need for stability in these zones before any strong move can begin.

Price Action After Unlock Will Guide the Next Move

The unlock event presents a key moment for ONDO. The way the market reacts will likely set the tone for the weeks ahead. If buying demand matches or exceeds the volume of tokens released, the price may hold or recover. If not, pressure may increase, and sellers could gain control.

Traders are watching closely. Whether ONDO can maintain support levels and absorb the new supply remains uncertain. The response after January 18 will give clearer direction on what comes next.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.