ETH Battles 200D EMA: Is a $4K Surge Coming Soon?

3 mins mins

Key Insights:

Ethereum continues to face resistance at the 200-day EMA, holding back a potential breakout rally.
Short-term consolidation aligns with wave 4 correction, with possible upside if support remains intact.
Strong volume and a daily close above $3,338 could trigger a move toward $4,000.

Section 81 — *ETH Battles 200D EMA: Is a $4K Surge Coming Soon?*

Ethereum was trading just under its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits at $3,338.76. The price, last recorded at $3,281.93, continues to struggle at this level. Over the past few sessions, buyers have pushed ETH close to the 200D EMA, but sellers have stepped in to block further progress.

$ETH keeps getting rejected from the 200D EMA level.

A reclaim with strong volume will push Ethereum towards the $3,800-$4,000 level. pic.twitter.com/NFwc4zmDEB
— Ted (@TedPillows) January 16, 2026

This area is widely tracked by market participants as a trend marker. Price action near this level often reflects broader market sentiment. Ethereum has yet to close a daily candle above it in the current attempt, keeping the market cautious. Many traders are watching this zone closely for a clean break and a strong daily close above.

Short-Term Chart Shows Ongoing Correction

A 30-minute chart of Ethereum reveals a sideways move that fits into a wave 4 corrective pattern, based on Elliott Wave principles. After a sharp rise earlier in the week, the market is now moving within a narrow range. The move appears to be forming an A-B-C structure, common during consolidation phases.

Support levels between $3,249 and $3,213 remain intact. ETH has stayed above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,295, which may suggest underlying strength. A push higher is still expected by some analysts if the lower support band continues to hold. One update from More Crypto Online noted,

“One more high is still likely for now.”

Volume and Trend Indicators Remain Mixed

Ethereum has seen $24.1 billion in trading volume over the past 24 hours. The price has dipped by 1.1% in that time, though it remains up 5.6% over the last week. This mix of short-term weakness and weekly strength adds to the uncertainty around the current level.

If the price reclaims the 200-day EMA with clear volume support, the next potential move could target $3,800 to $4,000. Previous price structure supports this range as the next area of interest. Until then, ETH may continue to trade sideways or test support near $3,100 if pressure builds.

$ETH keeps getting rejected from the 200D EMA level.

A reclaim with strong volume will push Ethereum towards the $3,800-$4,000 level. pic.twitter.com/NFwc4zmDEB
— Ted (@TedPillows) January 16, 2026

Key Levels to Watch

Short-term support sits in the $3,213 to $3,249 range, with resistance at $3,338. Traders are watching for a clean break from this consolidation. A confirmed push above the 200-day EMA could shift momentum toward the upside.

Still, as noted by market watchers, “the support zone must hold to keep the bullish structure intact.” Price stability above this area could open the door for a possible wave 5 push in the coming sessions.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.