Bitcoin’s Cycle and ISM Index Correlation Intensifies

Key Points:
  • Bitcoin’s price cycle aligns with ISM index and liquidity patterns.
  • Bitcoin could peak in Q2 2026.
  • Altcoins suggested to have significant potential, says Raoul Pal.

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal suggested Bitcoin’s price cycle mirrors the ISM Manufacturing Index and liquidity trends, predicting a peak in Q2 2026.

This correlation could impact cryptocurrency strategies, drawing attention from investors seeking to align with the ISM index dynamics.

Current Bitcoin Trends Show Strong Economic Alignment

Pal noted in a recent discussion, “Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up,” further reflecting on the cryptocurrency’s growth prospects if the ISM index reaches its normal peak. Market observers keenly analyze these insights, as they hold potential implications for investors, portfolios, and broader market dynamics.

As of September 25, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $111,050.16, with a market cap of approximately $2.21 trillion and dominating 58.27% of the market, according to CoinMarketCap data. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin experienced a price decrease of 2.35%, while trading volume changed by 19.04%.

An analysis by the Coincu research team indicates potential sustained volatility as Bitcoin approaches the predicted cycle peak. Past trends suggest Bitcoin’s correlation with broader economic cycles aligns with Pal’s predictions, pointing to ongoing volatility, particularly for investors drawing parallels with historic market patterns.

Market Insights and Future Predictions

Did you know? Bitcoin has aligned with the business cycle similar to 2017, marked by high liquidity and dynamic rate cycles, hinting at periods of rapid market movement.

Pal’s insights suggest that the market dynamics will continue to evolve as Bitcoin’s cycle extends, leading to significant price movements and volatility.

bitcoin-daily-chart-3455
Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 16:49 UTC on September 25, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Experts are closely monitoring these trends, as they could redefine investment strategies and risk management in the cryptocurrency landscape.

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