Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Surge with Fed’s Liquidity Moves

2 mins mins

Key Points:

Potential Bitcoin price surge to $200,000 by 2026.
Influence of U.S. Federal Reserve actions on Bitcoin.
Impact on digital asset valuations and market reactions.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, predicts in a Substack essay that Federal Reserve liquidity measures will boost Bitcoin to $200,000 by March 2026.

Hayes argues that upcoming monetary policy changes could create conditions for substantial Bitcoin appreciation, reflecting wider market effects on cryptocurrency asset valuation.

Potential Impact of Federal Reserve’s RMP Strategy

Hayes detailed that the Federal Reserve’s RMP program, buying up to $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly, could act as a disguised liquidity injection. Hayes suggests that bitcoin could benefit significantly from this increase in liquidity as it is perceived as a hedge against inflation. “As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” said Arthur Hayes.

The potential implications of the Federal Reserve’s strategy include a decline in mortgage rates and increased bank lending. This could drive Bitcoin prices upwards, aligning with Hayes’ projection of a rally past $124,000 in late 2025. The potential macroeconomic impacts signal that risk assets could thrive under these new conditions.

Market reactions to these predictions are mixed. Hayes asserts that Bitcoin’s price could exceed $200,000 as investors adjust to the implications of the RMP program. As of now, no official comments have been made by cryptocurrency exchanges or financial market regulators regarding the specific prediction made by Hayes.

Market Data and Insights

Did you know? The historical trend shows similar strategies may catalyze market asset appreciation.

Bitcoin is currently valued at $95,875.93 with a market cap of $1.92 trillion. It shows a daily trading volume of $60.25 billion and a market dominance of 59.12%. Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated, showing a slight 0.28% increase over 24 hours, but a 12.19% decrease over 90 days, as per CoinMarketCap.

bitcoin-daily-chart-5638 — Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 03:57 UTC on January 15, 2026. *Source: CoinMarketCap*

Insights from the Coincu research team suggest potential outcomes of a Federal Reserve liquidity strategy. If recognized as akin to QE, risk appetite in Bitcoin could increase significantly, potentially leading to historic price levels.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.