Bitcoin On-Chain Index Signals Structural Bear Market Shift

2 mins mins

Key Points:

CryptoQuant analysts highlight a structural bear market shift in Bitcoin.
Market reflects demand exhaustion with declining on-chain index.
Potential bottom formation if historical patterns repeat.

CryptoQuant analysts reported a continuing decline in the Bitcoin On-Chain Index (BCMI), suggesting a structural market reset rather than a simple correction, according to PANews on December 24.

This structural shift into a bear market, driven by demand exhaustion, impacts Bitcoin’s price and investor sentiment, potentially influencing future market dynamics.

BCMI Decline Signals Potential Bear Market Entry

CryptoQuant analysts report that the Bitcoin Market Cycle Index (BCMI) is declining, currently below equilibrium yet above historical lows. They perceive this as indicative of a structural market reset through price and on-chain momentum, rather than merely a cooling phase. Historically, cyclical bottoms form when BCMI hits the 0.25-0.35 range.

The current decline is viewed as the market transitioning into a bear phase amid demand exhaustion. If past patterns are indicative, a sustainable bottom is anticipated when BCMI reaches support levels seen in previous cycles. This shift may impact institutional investment strategies and on-chain activity significantly.

“Bitcoin’s cycle has turned as demand growth has fallen below trend, with price breaking its 365-day moving average and ETF flows weakening, indicating the start of a bear market driven by demand exhaustion rather than a simple correction.” — CryptoQuant Research Team

Historical Lows and Future Implications for BTC

Did you know? In both 2019 and 2023, Bitcoin’s market cycle reached crucial lows when the Bitcoin On-Chain Index (BCMI) plummeted to a 0.25-0.35 range, indicating strong historical precedents for market recovery patterns.

Bitcoin, symbol BTC, trades at $87,257.36 with a market cap over CryptoQuant insights and research articles and dominant market share at 59.14%. CoinMarketCap reports a 21.80% decline over 90 days, highlighting recent volatility. BTC’s circulating supply remains near its maximum limit.

bitcoin-daily-chart-5269 — Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 11:14 UTC on December 24, 2025. *Source: CoinMarketCap*

According to Coincu’s research, Bitcoin’s shift into a bear market phase signals potential impacts on future price stabilization. This structural change could reshape financial strategies, affecting future price stabilization. Regulatory dialogues may play a role in shaping market resilience amid cyclical lows.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.