Is ‘38% of altcoins near all-time lows’ accurate? What we know
A headline claim states that 38% of altcoins are near all-time lows and that this exceeds post‑FTX levels. As reported by MEXC News, the statement frames current breadth as historically weak relative to late‑2022.
No primary institutional dataset is cited alongside the figure. A transparent way to assess it is to define “near all‑time low” (for example, trading within 10–15% of the all‑time low), select a replicable asset universe, and compute the share meeting that threshold.
To strengthen the comparison, the same methodology should be run for the post‑FTX period. The result would show whether today’s percentage truly exceeds the breadth deterioration observed after the exchange’s failure.
Two caveats matter. Survivorship bias can understate weakness if delisted tokens are excluded, and thinly traded assets can print stale or gapped prices that distort “near low” counts. Any interpretation should account for liquidity and listing status.
Why it matters: breadth, risk appetite, and capital rotation to altcoins
market breadth summarizes how gains or losses are distributed across the asset class. Persistently high shares of tokens near all‑time lows signal weak risk appetite and concentration in a few large names.
Capital rotation to altcoins typically requires improving breadth. Conditions often cited include softening Bitcoin dominance, growing stablecoin supply that can be deployed, broadening ETF/ETP net inflows, and rising on‑chain and DEX volumes beyond a handful of pairs.
Editorial note: the breadth claim is newsworthy but not independently verified here. “38% of altcoins are near all-time lows, exceeding market levels after the FTX crash,” said MEXC News.
PMI index correlation with crypto and Fed policy: immediate context
Purchasing Managers’ Index readings track changes in business activity; the 50 threshold commonly separates expansion from contraction, according to S&P Global. Risk assets can respond when PMI momentum shifts, especially around turning points.
“The correlation between the PMI index crypto/”>and the altcoin market has confirmed a notable signal in March,” said BeInCrypto. This aligns with narratives that improving growth proxies can precede broader risk‑on rotations.
Policy settings also matter. According to the Federal Reserve, interest‑rate decisions shape financial conditions; tighter stances can weigh on speculative assets, while easing can lower discount rates and improve liquidity transmission.
At the time of this writing, Coinbase (COIN) traded at 175.12, down 3.28% intraday, based on data from Nasdaq. This is contextual background and not indicative of future performance.
Signals to monitor before calling an altseason
BTC dominance, stablecoin supply, ETF flows, on-chain and DEX volumes
A sustained decline in BTC dominance alongside expanding stablecoin market value suggests fresh, deployable capital rather than simple rotation. Net inflows into spot ETFs/ETPs can indicate improving top‑down demand.
Complementary signs include rising on‑chain transfer activity and DEX spot volumes across multiple chains and sectors, not just one or two marquee pairs. Broader liquidity usually precedes durable altcoin leadership.
Market breadth: assets near all-time lows, 200D MAs, new lows
Breadth tends to improve when fewer assets sit near all‑time lows and more reclaim their 200‑day moving averages. A declining count of daily or weekly “new lows” across the universe strengthens the case.
Using a fixed methodology over time helps reduce noise: define “near ATL,” standardize the asset list, and re‑run the same screens. Adjust for survivorship and exclude illiquid, stale‑priced tokens where appropriate.
FAQ about altcoins near all-time lows
What does the PMI index signal for crypto markets, and how strongly does it correlate with altcoin performance?
PMI tracks business activity trends. When momentum improves around the 50 level, risk appetite can firm, and altcoins may benefit, though correlations vary over time.
What indicators suggest capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins (e.g., BTC dominance, stablecoin supply growth, ETF flows)?
Falling BTC dominance, expanding stablecoin supply, persistent net ETF inflows, rising on‑chain activity, and widening DEX volumes across sectors typically precede stronger altcoin participation.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
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