U.S. Government Shutdown Prolonged: Prediction Markets React

2 mins mins

Key Points:

U.S. government shutdown extends predictions, traders see 37% likelihood of 30+ days.
Polymarket and Kalshi prediction platforms set key probabilities.
No crypto exchange or KOL commentary on shutdown effects.

Traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi indicate the U.S. government shutdown may extend beyond October with probabilities rising significantly since the shutdown’s onset.

Increased shutdown duration likelihood highlights economic uncertainty, potentially affecting cryptocurrency markets, although no direct industry comments or data confirm immediate impact.

Prediction Markets See 37% Shutdown Extension Probability

According to Polymarket, the implied probability of the U.S. government shutdown continuing beyond a month has increased significantly to 37%. Expectations from Kalshi replicate similar trends with a 39% probability for the same outcome. These figures illustrate traders’ growing pessimism. Trading volumes are noteworthy, with Kalshi reporting over $2.50 million wagered on the shutdown’s duration and Polymarket at $1.50 million. This reflects the stakes involved, especially given the lack of recent significant market reactions. Political discourse remains tense.

President Trump and other figures have blamed opposing parties for the stalemate.

Potential layoffs are up to them. – President Donald Trump, President of the United States

Crypto Resilience Amid U.S. Political Paralysis

Did you know? The recent rise in prediction market probabilities during the current U.S. shutdown surpasses earlier sessions’ expectations, marking a historical shift in trader sentiment. Historical political impasses rarely exceeded the 30-day forecast.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin’s current price is $121,499.91 with a market cap of formatNumber(2421807468121, 2) and -1.00% change over 24 hours. Its dominance stands at 58.50%, with a 7-day change of 0.88%. The cryptocurrency’s resilience amid potential economic disruptions underscores its role as a hedge. Coincu research highlights that past U.S. government dysfunctions have led to increased Bitcoin interest given its relative price stability. DeFi protocols may face increased risk, although the speculative nature of predictions requires careful observation.

bitcoin-daily-chart-3662 — Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 11:25 UTC on October 10, 2025. *Source: CoinMarketCap*

Final insights from analysts or experts.

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