Crypto bear market 2026-2027 may persist under Axel’s model
A crypto–market analyst known as Axel projects that the current bear cycle could last through at least the end of 2026, with an eventual turn in mid‑2027. As reported by Bitget News, this view is anchored to the post‑peak structure that followed the October 2025 all‑time high near $125,000 and the subsequent shift into an extended accumulation.
Under this framework, the path out of the downturn depends on on‑chain behavior normalizing and trend signals bottoming before they improve. Bitget News summarizes Axel’s focus on an on‑chain activity gauge and its moving‑average configuration as a proxy for cycle transitions.
Why this 2026–2027 timeline matters for Bitcoin accumulation phase
An accumulation phase generally features compressed ranges, weaker momentum, and a transfer of coins from short‑term to longer‑term holders. In practice, liquidity thins, realized losses stabilize, and volatility gradually declines before a durable uptrend can form.
If Axel’s duration call proves directionally accurate, the implication is a longer base‑building window rather than a quick V‑shaped recovery. Historically, that kind of structure has rewarded patience and data‑driven tracking of trend confirmation rather than rapid re‑risking.
Immediate impact: indicators and views from Bank of America, Goldman
Institutional outlooks underscore caution but stop short of endorsing a fixed mid‑2027 turn date. The Economic Times has reported that Goldman Sachs analysts flagged elevated drawdown risk into 2025, citing valuations and policy uncertainty, which aligns with a defensive near‑term stance without fixing a crypto‑specific endpoint.
MarketWatch noted a more measured tone for 2026 from Bank of America’s strategy team, highlighting cyclical and positioning risks that could complicate risk‑asset returns. After outlining those headwinds, Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, warned of an “AI air pocket” potentially weighing on performance.
These views, together with Axel’s cycle model, frame a base‑case of patience and verification rather than date‑certainty. The common thread is to monitor whether trend and participation data improve before extrapolating a recovery path.
Key signals and scenarios for 2026–2027
Entity-Adjusted Liveliness and moving-average crossovers to watch
Axel’s model emphasizes an on‑chain activity indicator sometimes referenced as Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness. As reported by Bitget News, he tracks a 90‑day average turning down and crossing below a 365‑day average at a specific threshold, interpreting that as confirmation of a prolonged accumulation.
In plain terms, this setup suggests coins are becoming less active on chain and holders are extending holding periods. A sustained downturn in the fast average beneath the slow average, holding below the cited level, would be consistent with a later‑dated recovery window.
At the time of this writing, bitcoin trades near $67,746 with very high 30‑day volatility around 12.17% and an RSI near 37.74. The 50‑day simple moving average is about $84,201 and the 200‑day near $100,525, indicating the spot price remains below medium‑ and long‑term trend gauges.
Scenarios: bear persists, base-building, or earlier recovery
If the bear persists, on‑chain activity and breadth would likely remain subdued, with spot holding below key moving averages and failed rallies fading. This aligns with Axel’s later‑dated transition and prolonged consolidation.
A base‑building scenario would feature stabilization in realized losses and gradual improvement in participation, even if price remains range‑bound. That path could precede a recovery but may still extend well into 2026.
An earlier recovery would require decisive improvements in trend and participation metrics, plus macro support. Without those confirmations, date‑based targets risk overconfidence relative to the observable tape and on‑chain data.
FAQ about crypto bear market 2026-2027
What data or indicators support Axel’s bear market timeline prediction?
Bitget News cites Axel’s focus on Entity‑Adjusted Liveliness and a 90‑day versus 365‑day crossover near a defined threshold, implying prolonged accumulation.
How do major institutions like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs view the 2026 market outlook compared to Axel?
They signal caution and correction risk rather than endorsing a fixed mid‑2027 turn, emphasizing valuations, policy, and earnings dynamics over date‑certain cycle calls.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
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