With Bitcoin (BTC) price not breaking above $ 35,000 yesterday, JPMorgan forecast a general downtrend below an important price level based on the BTC-to-gold volatility ratio.

In a notice to investors on Wednesday, JPMorgan explained the reasons why Bitcoin’s fair value is between $ 23,000 and $ 35,000 in the medium term. The banking giant had previously envisioned a route of $ 140,000 if the largest cryptocurrency matched the allocation and volatility profile of gold.

But that is undeniable for the foreseeable future as JPMorgan notes and predicts that “full or equal convergence of volatility or distribution” [between gold and bitcoin] is unlikely in the near future. “

JPMorgan also says China’s crackdown on mining activities will have a positive impact on Bitcoin in the medium term, “as it accelerates the move away from China’s high stake in Bitcoin’s hash rate”.

Not many companies join MicroStrategy’s hunt for software. “More than a month after the May 19 crypto crash, bitcoin funds continue to bleed even as inflows into physical gold ETFs cease,” added JPMorgan:

“This suggests that institutional investors who tend to invest through regulated vehicles like listed Bitcoin funds or CME Bitcoin futures are even less willing to buy.” Bitcoin Halving “.

Related: Bitcoin price drops below $ 34,000 as the grayscale BTC unlock date approaches

Another major factor preventing a potential bull run, according to JPMorgan, is the end of the six-month lock-up period for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund, which saw an inflow of nearly $ 4 billion in October, December and January 19, which will become its most significant single unlock date at 16,000 BTC worth around $ 627 million.

After hitting its all-time high in April, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $ 30,000 and $ 40,000 in the past few weeks. After falling below $ 29,000 on June 22, BTC price is hovering around $ 34,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.