ETH, the second largest cryptocurrency in the market, is just as popular, if not more popular, than Bitcoin right now. However, while this altcoin was a bit bullish, there have been some unreasonable expectations in the past few days.

The reason they are ridiculous and what is waiting for upcoming ETH investors will definitely make you reconsider your decision.

Increase or Decrease?

On September 15, around 363,000 ETH left the stock exchange. The total value of this ETH was $ 1.2 billion. According to analytics website Into The Block (ITB), the last time there was such volume, ETH was up 60% in 30 days.

The net amount of $ ETH Exiting just the exchange has set a new record

Over $ 1.2 billion worth $ ETH left the centralized exchange yesterday

Last time more than $ 1 billion left CEXs #Ether increased by 60% within 30 days pic.twitter.com/wfRuX11Rtk

– IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) 16.09.2021

“The net amount of ETH leaving exchanges has just hit a new record. Over $ 1.2 billion in ETH left the centralized exchange (CEX) on September 15. Last time, more than 1 billion CEX and ETH left 60% in 30 days.

The truth of the matter, however, is entirely different. Currently, ETH will not be able to raise 60% as the price action itself shows. In addition, there are other reasons to claim so.

On September 15, profitable offer hit 97.03%, marking the top of the market, suggesting that the next action is bearish. In fact, the price is almost 4.44% lower since yesterday.

price ETH down 4.44% | Source: TradingView

Observing the profitable supply and the September 7th price movement leads to the same conclusion. On September 6th, 99% of ETH were profitable and a new top market leader was created. This, of course, signaled the impending decline, and the very next day ETH was down 12.69%.

Profitable percentage of the ETH offering | Source: Glassnode

How did investors react?

The events of 2 days ago also resulted in many large wallets moving coins, with transactions valued at more than $ 100,000 up 2,000. This resulted in a volume of roughly $ 2 billion that was carried over in just 2,000 transactions.

Total mass | Source: ITB

At the same time, medium-term owners (who hold 3-6 months) are also leaving the market. In just one day, the index lost almost 7% in volume.

Number of holders medium term from ETH down 7% | Source: Glassnode

In addition, the top of the market also caused the ETH’s correlation with Bitcoin to drop to 0.55. This is the lowest level in almost 3 months.

BILLIONRelationship of ETH with Bitcoin at 3-month low | Source: Intotheblock

Therefore, the expectation of a price increase of 60% is certainly out of the question for the time being. Some consolidation is possible, but a price increase of more than 10-15% based on a single indicator makes no sense when other indicators show the opposite.

Price analysis ETH

On the other hand, the technical aspect reflects the better scenario. The downward movement after the parallel channel erupted raised hopes for another bull run.

Price table ETH Daily | The source: TradingView

Since falling to a low of USD 1,720 at the end of July, ETH has been in a strong upward trend. After a period of stability in August, ETH continued its upward trend and formed a new top on the 78.6% Fibonacci. Although the September 7 collapse threatened to reverse the cycle, buyers have a clear advantage as the lower trendline is rising.

Delving a little deeper into ETH’s move over the past week suggests the formation of a bearish channel. At the time of writing, the price is falling again after ETH broke out of this pattern on September 15.

Such a decline is very important in understanding the nature of an outbreak. Usually a pullback to a certain level of resistance (in this case Fibonacci 78.6%) will help fuel another rally in the future. If the scenario works out as expected, ETH is likely to climb above $ 3,800 and the September 3rd high of $ 4,030.

From there, the next target will be higher than the previous ATH at $ 4,380.

However, the downward move doesn’t necessarily trigger another rally. Should the support levels fail to withstand selling pressures, a decline in prices is inevitable. Accordingly, ETH will retest the 50% Fibonacci at $ 3,048.

While ETH is stuck between the above two scenarios, the indicators cannot clearly determine which direction price will go. MACD and Awesome Oscillator are moving along the center line on either side due to weak momentum. On the other hand, the RSI forms higher low signaling optimism. However, it has not risen above 60 to confirm the bullish scenario.

In summary, given the nature of the current downward move, it is likely that ETH will rebound in the coming days. Levels like $ 3,800 and $ 4,030 will be in the queue if the result is favorable. In the meantime, traders need to keep a close eye on the above indicators. The price, which continues to move higher in the bullish territory, offers an opportunity to go north.

You can see the ETH price here.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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