It’s been almost 2 weeks since Alonzo went live on the Cardano network. Before the hard fork, the majority believed that ADA price would soar to new heights soon after its release.

However, the hard fork turned out to be a “disappointing event” and did not have a major impact on the ADA price. In fact, ADA fell as low as $ 1.98 in the days following its release. Accordingly, many people believe that ADA, like other tokens, has fallen victim to the general pessimistic trend in the broader market.

ADA Price Chart | Source: Tradingview

In a way, this is absolutely true, especially since ADA’s reliance on other cryptocurrencies has increased in recent weeks. In fact, it currently correlates with Bitcoin and ETH at 0.78 and 0.74, respectively.

In addition, poor on-chain indicators also have a spillover effect on the price. As long as this does not improve, a trend reversal in the course seems unlikely.

Status of the network

The review of the network status should give a reasonable idea of ​​the expected direction of the ADA. According to data from CardanoScan, the number of transactions on the network has been fairly stagnant in the past few days, despite having exceeded 111,000 on September 17.

This proves that not many people are using the Cardano network yet.

Number of transactions in the last 15 days | The source: cardanoscan.io

In addition, the average transfer value has also hit lows so far. Notably, this index rose in the first few days of September but fell in free fall shortly thereafter. In addition, the percentage of active addresses will decrease from 9.17% to 2.45% between September 7th and 24th.

In general, this means that active users only try and test the network at this stage. As a result, the Cardano market is currently lacking solid momentum.

Still, it’s not entirely hopeless for Cardano.

Average transfer value | The source: Messari

Further publications in Q4

Cardano will host a series of launch events in the fourth quarter of 2021. The introduction of the Cardax DEX will allow users to exchange ADA for other native tokens. In particular, this decentralized exchange will have its own utility token – CDX. In addition, GREED was also introduced as one of the first tokens on the blockchain.

At the same time, alongside Liqwid – an open source liquidity protocol with no custody (custody) and SingularityNET – a platform that enables users to create and monetize AI services on a large scale, a number of notable projects are developing the Cardano ecosystem in the to use in the coming weeks. Accordingly, blockchain will attract more new users.

Hence, a significant trend reversal seems unlikely until the Cardano rollout accelerates. In fact, only if the above future events are actually contributing to the growth of the network does it make more sense to predict a direct impact on price.

It’s worth noting that the charts are showing optimism at the time of writing based on the hype surrounding the Cardano summit September 25-26. In fact, ADA price has rallied a bit since falling on the 21st to create a slight uptrend.

However, it is too early to say whether the hype will hold current prices. In addition, for the reasons mentioned, ADA is still a long way from ATH.

So it will be interesting to see if there will be more “bombing events” in the near future.

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