Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) is up more than 15% in the first 12 days of October, but compared to Bitcoin (BTC) which is up 30% over the same period, the second largest cryptocurrency is currently on a downward trend in price in BTC.

So far, the ETH / BTC exchange rate has fallen more than 12% in October (and fourth quarter 2021), hitting 0.060215 BTC on Tuesday for the first time in over two months.

The decline also pushed ETH / BTC below one of its oldest areas of support, the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; orange wave), as shown in the graph above. This increases the risk of another downward move with 0.055304 BTC as the next possible target.

Bitcoin dominance rises thanks to ETF hope

Further evidence of the ETH / BTC weakness comes from Bitcoin’s increasing dominance in the crypto market.

In particular, the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D), which measures the capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency compared to the rest of the crypto market, rose from 42.39% on October 1 to 46.64% on October 12. On the other hand, dominance fell of Ethereum (ETH.D) from 18.15% to 17.57% over the same period.

This shows that so far more capital has flowed into the Bitcoin market than Altcoins in October.

Related: Institutional crypto products hit record AUM as investors flock to Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s growing dominance coincides with expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve four Bitcoin-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the coming weeks. The candidates are Global X Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin Futures Fund, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust and Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF.

SEC chairman Gary Gensler has hinted at an optimistic outcome for the Bitcoin ETF, despite the fact that the securities regulator has denied similar requests for eight consecutive years. However, Gensler noted that this time around, Bitcoin ETF applicants were filed under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which offers greater investor protection.

Earlier this week, two “light” Bitcoin ETFs started trading in the US, the Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF under the ticker SATO and the Invesco Alerian Galaxy Blockchain Users and Decentralized Commerce ETF (BLKC). However, the funds invest 80% of their assets in crypto-related companies, not Bitcoin itself.

The SEC has also approved a third crypto-stock ETF. The fund, known as the Cryptocurrency Industrial Revolution and Technology ETF (BTCR), will reach “entities that hold most of their net assets in Bitcoin or that derive most of their income from mining”.

Bitcoin about to “lose its mind”?

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the news was “very bullish” on Bitcoin. Likewise, the independent market analyst Lark Davis predicts a “crazy” market reaction if the SEC approves a Bitcoin ETF with actual BTC exposure.

I don’t think people are fully prepared for how crazy the market is going to be when we have it #bitcoin ETF approved!

– Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 8, 2021

So it appears that speculation over the past few days about the approval of a Bitcoin ETF has increased traders’ appetites for the top cryptocurrency, with BTC outperforming its top rivals, including Ether.

However, Ethereum has a strong decentralized application ecosystem and remains a key force behind the booming decentralized finance (DeFi) and useless tokens (NFT) sector.

David Gokhshtein, founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, noted that Ethereum’s healthy network effect could bring Ether to $ 10,000 by the end of the year. In the meantime, as Cointelegraph mentioned, the ongoing supply crisis in the Ethereum market will remain a hotspot for future bulls.