Ethereum (ETH) entered a slightly bullish channel earlier this month and has now recaptured the USD 3,800 level. Despite the recent turmoil, the bulls can make a profit of $ 53 million today (October 15th) on the weekly options expiration.

Investors have also shown no interest in Ether’s recent underperformance versus Bitcoin, and its year-to-date return is 265%. If Ether holds above $ 3,600 today, 99% of the $ 180 million put options will become worthless.

Ether price chart | Source: TradingView

Ethereum’s smart contract competitors continue to apply pressure and at the time of writing, Ethereum’s average gas fee is over $ 20. Polkadot (DOT) is scheduled to start its Parachain auction on November 11th and this will support the launch of a new token, DeFi, an Internet of Things (IoT) solution over cross-network bridges.

This week, Binance Smart Chain (BCS) revealed plans to launch a $ 1 billion fund to accelerate adoption across the crypto industry. Investors often interpret potential incubation events backed by blockchain projects as bullish on the original asset and that the price of BNB has increased by at least 30% since it was announced.

Bears are not expecting an Ethereum price above $ 3,300

Based on recent negative news, it’s understandable why the bears have 88% of their stakes at $ 3,300 or less. If the cops had been a little less greedy, they could have dominated $ 365 million today.

Today’s option expiration is a perfect balance between a call option and a long-to-short put. However, depending on the price at expiry, a more detailed analysis may be required.

Ether Futures OI Summary October 15th | Source: Bybt

Both sides hold $ 180 million in ether options, as evidenced by the call-to-put ratio of 1.03.

However, this metric is inaccurate as the recent Ether rally is likely to nullify most of their bearish bets. For example, if the price of Ether stays above $ 3,500 today at 3:00 p.m. KST, there will be only $ 6.6 million in put options.

Cows at rest at $ 3,600

Any price over $ 3,500 on option expiration is a bear trap, though the $ 32 million advantage is not enough to cause harm.

Here are the four most likely scenarios, considering current prices as an imbalance in favor of the two represents potential gains from decay.

The data shows how many contracts are available to both parties this afternoon:

• From $ 3,300 to $ 3,500: 7,450 buy orders vs. 3,550 sell orders. The net result favors the cops by $ 13 million.
• From $ 3,500 to $ 3,600: 11,150 buy orders vs. 1,900 sell orders. The net result favors the cops by $ 32 million.
• From $ 3,600 to $ 3,800: 15,400 buy orders vs. 600 sell orders. Profits for the bulls rose to $ 74 million.
• Over $ 3,800: 27,450 buy orders vs. 0 sell orders. The cops completely dominated, grossing $ 104 million.

This rough estimate looks at calls that are used in bullish and put strategies specifically for neutral to bearish trades. However, a trader could effectively have sold a put to get positive exposure to ether above a certain price. But unfortunately there is no way to assess this effect.

The bulls’ profits soar to $ 104 million as Ether trades above $ 3,800, specifically a $ 30 million increase from the current estimated profit of $ 74 million. On the flip side, if bears push the price below $ 3,500, they have a $ 61 million advantage, as the estimates above suggest.

With only 5 hours to go before the option expires, the bears will have a hard time stopping the current upward cycle. Despite the competition from the Ethereum network and high gas fees, investor demand for DeFi and NFT appears to be sufficient to keep Ether on an uptrend.

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