Bitcoin (BTC) consolidation under resistance over the past few days casts doubt on whether the short-term trend is bullish. However, the long-term bias remains bullish, suggesting that it could hit a new ATH in the medium term.

Day outlook

After a significant upswing on November 3rd and a long wick underneath (green symbol), BTC removed the strength of this upswing with a bearish bar the following day.

Technical indicators continue to show mixed results.

The MACD histogram showed 15 consecutive bars with lower momentum. In addition, it is very close to entering the negative zone. This means that the short-term MA is moving more slowly than the long-term MA and is a bearish sign. The last time this happened just before BTC hit its September low.

However, the RSI is above 50, suggesting that the uptrend is still intact.

The next supports are at $ 56,530 and $ 53,300. These are the 0.382 and 0.5 FIb retracement support levels, respectively.

BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

Future BTC movement

The two-hour chart shows that BTC has been moving along a rising support line since September 27th. Every time the price touches this line (green symbol), it forms a long wick underneath, which indicates that there is pressure to buy.

However, the technical indicators are at a neutral level. The RSI is right at the 50 line while the MACD is at 0 – both suggest that the trend is still vague.

The main resistance area is at $ 63,530. This is the 0.618 fib retracement resistance and the horizontal resistance range. On November 3, BTC appeared to have broken out above it (green circle) but fell back below shortly afterwards, making the breakout a deviation.

Until BTC breaks above this zone or below the support line, the short-term trend remains a mystery.

BTC / USDT 2-hour chart | Source: TradingView

Count waves

There are currently two possible scenarios for BTC. While both suggest that BTC will hit a new all-time high in the medium term, the short-term move is different.

The upward move since October 27th looks corrective. This is because there is significant overlap between short term rallies. Hence, BTC can be in a 1-2 / 1-2 waveform. If so, BTC could drop to the previously indicated support at USD 53,300 before climbing to the top.

BTC / USDT 6-hour chart | Source: TradingView

As the short-term rally appears to be correcting, wave one may not have finished yet and BTC will remain in sub-wave four (black) which is triangular in shape.

In this case, BTC will bounce back towards USD 70,000 before a short-term correction. It will then continue to rise to new ATH levels.

A break below the short term ascending support line or a break above the USD 63,500 resistance area will likely determine which scenario is correct.

BTC / USDT 6-hour chart | Source: TradingView

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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