- The US economic recession probability has risen to 62% for 2025.
- Caused by trade tensions between the US and China.
- Global markets experience volatility, affecting major equities and cryptocurrencies.
On April 5, 2025, a significant surge in the likelihood of a US economic recession by 2025 was reported, with predictive data pointing to a 62% chance. This follows increased tariffs in the US-China trade tension. The significance of this recession prediction lies in the potential for global economic instability and market corrections, impacting equities and cryptocurrency values.
US-China Tariffs Fuel 62% Recession Probability The US and China have engaged in heightened trade tensions, escalating on April 2, 2025, when President Donald Trump applied new tariffs on Chinese imports. The Chinese government promptly retaliated, leveling an equivalent 34% tariff on US goods. The tariffs were seen as part of a broader dispute over trade practices and were described by China’s Ministry of Commerce as “unilateral bullying.” Financial markets are reacting swiftly to the increased tension, with equity markets experiencing a sharp downturn, especially within the technology sector. The potential for a US economic recession has injected fresh volatility into the markets, with Bitcoin also experiencing price fluctuations.
Market Reactions Highlight Bitcoin’s Volatility Amid Geopolitical Tension
Equity markets have faced downturns amid recession fears, bringing notable declines. The decline extends to Bitcoin, whose price decreased from $84,000 to $81,500, reflecting a broader risk-off strategy among investors. Bitcoin’s connection to equities questions its reliability as a safe-haven asset. Statements from officials in both governments reflect an entrenched standoff. The absence of direct recession-related comments from President Donald Trump’s office adds uncertainty, but experts like Bob Loukas and Alex Krüger voice concerns over macroeconomic risks. Future policy adjustments could play a decisive role in mitigating impacts.
“I’m starting to think we’re heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one… but risks weigh heavily. Bonds are safer, but Bitcoin might hold up due to digital gold narratives.” – Bob Loukas
“I’m starting to think we’re heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one… but risks weigh heavily. Bonds are safer, but Bitcoin might hold up due to digital gold narratives.” – Bob Loukas
Market Data and Expert Insights
Did you know? In previous instances like 2018-2019’s trade wars, similar tariff impositions resulted in significant global market volatility, highlighting the close link between geopolitical decisions and financial stability.
Bitcoin (BTC), priced at $84,126.36, with a market cap of approximately 1.67 trillion USD and a 10.15% change in its daily trading volume, continues to dominate 61.95% of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap. Its circulating supply now stands at 19,846,681 out of a 21 million cap. In the past 90 days, Bitcoin’s price depreciated by 14.44%, signaling investor caution amid growing economic uncertainty.
Reflect an expectation of intensified economic pressures, given the ongoing trade disputes. Analysts emphasize the need for careful policy navigation to address inflation risks and potential recession scenarios. Ongoing debates regarding Bitcoin as “digital gold” also continue amid recession narratives.
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