Arthur Hayes Foresees End of U.S. Treasury Dominance

2 mins mins

Key Points:

Arthur Hayes calls for gold, Bitcoin amid U.S. Treasury decline.
Bitcoin and gold see increased demand as reserve assets.
Financial shift affects global reserve preferences, per Hayes.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, declared an impending decline in the dominance of U.S. Treasury bonds as global reserve assets. The shift might drive a pivot towards gold and Bitcoin, impacting future asset preferences.

Hayes’ statement suggests a reshaping of financial strategies with Bitcoin and gold poised to replace traditional reserves. The implications underscore a broader transformation in asset allocation amid evolving global dynamics.

Gold and Bitcoin Emerge as Key Reserve Assets

Arthur Hayes forecasts a major financial shift, marking the decline of U.S. Treasury bonds as global reserve assets. Gold and Bitcoin are highlighted as new strategic hedges, replacing traditional reserves. This statement emerges amid heightened geopolitical instabilities.

The fall in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds signifies a pivot towards de-centralized and gold-backed trade settlements. Countries moving to national-first policies could further this transition by liquidating U.S. financial assets for liquidity.

“The era of U.S. Treasury bonds (and to a lesser extent, U.S. stocks) as global reserve assets is coming to an end. Gold will return as a neutral reserve asset, and countries will settle global trade by holding gold.” – Arthur Hayes, Co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX

U.S. Treasury Decline: Historical Context and Market Insights

Did you know? Since the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, U.S. Treasury bonds have increased by 85 times, reflecting a significant reliance on dollar-based reserves that Hayes believes is unsustainable. Analyzing Treasury Buyers Amid Fed’s Holdings Reduction provides insights into the current outlook.

Bitcoin currently trades at $82,867.58, showing volatility with a 24-hour trading volume decrease of 66.38% to $13.53 billion, reflecting broader macroeconomic pressures. According to CoinMarketCap, its market cap stands at $1.64 trillion with a recent 16.48% drop over 90 days.

bitcoin-daily-chart-180 — Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 08:40 UTC on April 6, 2025. *Source: CoinMarketCap*

Insights from the Coincu research team predict that alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold may gain prominence. The ongoing financial shifts could prompt regulatory adaptations, influencing cryptocurrency and gold markets and promoting asset diversification globally. For a comprehensive view, check US International Reserve Position Data Overview for more data on reserve positions.