Bitcoin (BTC) is on the lower side of the new week’s trade – it tested below $ 33,000 on Monday and the bulls are struggling.

What could happen next? With very few bullish voices in the short term, cryptocurrencies don’t seem to be of interest to investors right now.

Amid the uncertainty of the macro market, low volume, and claims of a bull market, Bitcoin has a lot to do to convince the market that good times are still ahead.

Cointelegraph has five things to consider when charting what could happen to BTC / USD in the days ahead.

Fed focus … again

The main focus of investors throughout the economy this week is on the Federal Reserve.

After Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments last week, the US dollar rebounded sharply as stocks then began selling as market participants repositioned. For example, the Dow Jones fell 3.5% in a single day – its worst reading since October last year.

The volatility came when Powell indicated that the Fed might soon begin scaling back its market intervention. This has become standard practice as part of the response to the coronavirus and the economic downturn that followed.

Connected: 4 Reasons Paul Tudor Jones’ 5% Bitcoin Exposure Advice Is Difficult For Large Funds

The decline in purchases that CNBC is seeing is currently approaching $ 120 billion per month, making it a notable shift.

Powell will speak again on Tuesday, this time to the Senate, and is expected to provide more information on last week’s news.

“I’m probably most interested in what Powell has to say,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Global Advisors, on Friday.

“All of you will now give us clear printouts of what was in the statement and what Powell said.”

If the unexpected comes, the volatility of the past few days could continue. Good news for the dollar, as Cointelegraph often notes, tends to be bad for bitcoin price movement.

“I don’t have a good feeling about the BTC chart when I wake up,” said famous trader Crypto Ed Summary when the week starts.

“One of the reasons is the IMO spike at DXY since last week.”

He added that the dollar could continue to “pressurize” Bitcoin until the US dollar currency index (DXY) hits 94 from its current level of 92.2.

Bank of China Removes Anti-Crypto Declaration in Minutes

It’s not a good look at Bitcoin’s spot price action later this week – but who’s to blame?

In addition to the Fed, another economy is influencing the crypto market, this time more directly: China.

In a statement, the Agricultural Bank of China, the country’s third largest lender, specifically stated that its services will not be used for crypto-related transactions.

“The Agricultural Bank of China has announced that it will not conduct virtual currency transactions and related activities,” said China-focused news source 8btc report, translate original documents for social network users.

“Customer accounts involved in such activities will be closed and relationships with customers will be terminated.”

The result of its release was instantly apparent – Bitcoin tumbled over $ 1,000 in minutes before rising back to $ 33,000.

Such behavior is not surprising, but the patience now leads to a more violent reaction from China. The last volume turned out to be an example of this – the bank deleted the excerpt shortly after it was published, but the damage was done.

Brief explanation for those confused about AGbank

The Agricultural Bank of China announces that the accounts of all customers trading cryptocurrencies will be closed.

15 minutes later, it looks like they removed the notification

2021 will be tough because the third largest bank in the world pic.twitter.com/qXax70lqgA

– db (@ tier10k) June 21, 2021

Overall, the Chinese government’s attitude towards Bitcoin has not changed fundamentally since the controversial trade ban came into force in September 2017.

“Half of the Bitcoin network is now being closed by China. Bitcoin’s hash rate is in the mid-2020s, “said Charles Edwards, CEO of asset management firm Capriole, Note in a series of tweets about the mining crackdown, the former source of Chinese price pressures.

Others argue that thanks to sanctions from both banks and governments, Bitcoin has been given new opportunities – mining will be relocated elsewhere and the network will grow thanks to the use of regions.

The “Chinese-dominated Bitcoin mining era” is drawing to a close. “Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer of the Human Rights Foundation, commented about a farewell message from a miner in Sichuan Province.

“It will be a rich source of satire for future historians as it teaches that the world’s free, open, and decentralized money web was in its early years secured by individuals within a repressive dictatorship.”

“Rick Astley’s” Bitcoin is back

As the USD 30,000 support draws nearer, concern and confusion dominate the response to BTC / USD performance on Monday.

This is because the indicators of a bullish turnaround are in place, but price has so far done the opposite.

One of them is the funding rate, which favors the bulls. At the time of writing, the price between the exchanges is negative – a classic sign that an uptrend is underway.

Switching between seasoned sellers confirms the trend, with coins even decimating at levels prior to Monday’s decline.

“Oh my god, Rick Astley is back,” statistician Willy Woo to explain along with a graph showing Bitcoin’s declining liquidity supply. “Rick Astley” refers to a popular metaphor for strong hands.

“Coins go back to HODLer, who never mined his BTC.”

Analyst William Clemente More that this “re-accumulation” reflects what happened in 2013 when Bitcoin had two upward phases separated by a large retracement.

“HODLers stack BTC a lot here,” he confirmed and noted the data on the net position change.

The fundamentals are echoed with uncertainty

China has a significant impact on the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network.

As Edwards noted above, thanks to widespread miners’ failures, hash rates have dropped significantly from their peak a few months ago.

This makes it difficult in the short term, especially for those who follow the classic mantra “price to hash rate”, but inevitably short-lived.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Quantitative Models, Part 4

Thanks to Bitcoin’s inherent setup, there is always a compelling opportunity to mine somewhere under different circumstances. Miner routing promotes participation in the network thanks to the hash rate, and after that the difficulty decreases.

The cost of joining is thus reduced and mining becomes a viable proposition for more and more potential companies.

Meanwhile, Blockstream CEO Adam Back pointed out that China’s impact on the hash rate is at least about 39% of the maximum. The metrics vary widely as the hash rate is an estimate and ultimately cannot be definitely measured.

PSA runs confused before next round of Chinese hashrate FUD: Hashrate is NOT cut in half, you are looking at VERY inaccurate data. The 7-day peak is 130 UH, 98 UH can now drop by -25%. and ATH peak 160 EH vs. 98 = -39%. You’re welcome. OK. Your. Basic. Truth. that’s right. in reporting. Many Thanks pic.twitter.com/Add83UvIj3

– Adam back (@ adam3us) June 20, 2021

Is it really so bad?

Not everyone thinks the outlook for Bitcoin is all bad news.

Multiple comparisons with previous bull market years suggest that 2021 is solid in line with benchmark price action.

As the popular Twitter analyst Root emphasized over the weekend, the indicators in the chain are flashing “oversold” rather than bearish despite the current external pressure.

So let’s cut the price today even though we are still in the same range (~ 35k) which is perfectly in line with previous bull markets!
#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/4Ivn3oVUhJ

– Root (@theerationalroot) June 20, 2021

Others, like PlanB, the creator of the stock flow pattern, are even bullish in virtually every time frame except the daily chart.

As Cointelegraph reported, its “worst case scenario” is currently at $ 135,000 for BTC / USD by the end of the year.

The offer at Flow hit all the price surprises of 2021 and continues to apply.