Bitcoin (BTC) won’t move much after the massive day of unlocking 16,000 BTC from Grayscale, says crypto trading firm QCP Capital.

In the latest market update, dated July 8th, analysts downplayed the popular theory that GBTC will lead to BTC price volatility in the coming weeks.

No “significant impact” is expected from GBTC

As Cointelegraph reported, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) will be issued or “unlocked” large amounts of BTC after a six-month lock-up period.

However, the size of the releases set for this month has regularly raised concerns that market volatility will increase, hampering any potential rebound.

For example, on July 18, the largest unlock date, 16,240 BTC will be available, which is currently $ 530 million.

However, there is little cause for concern for QCP.

“Pending activations are for institutional owners who registered directly with GBTC 6 months ago – and this batch contains all of the new Q1 / 2021 slots, mostly the last batch from ARK,” she explains.

“To be clear – we do not expect any significant effects of these activations on the overall market outside of GBTC itself. Most of the previously registered large institutional slots were activated beforehand and sales were suspended at the current discounted price. “

For now, even GBTC unlock events should go away by mid-August, reducing the possibility of further selling pressure.

Macro factors could prevent a “bigger” BTC sell-off

However, the QCP headache creates the possibility of a major Bitcoin sell-off later in the year.

Related: Bitcoin Price Could Reach $ 85,000 In Months If Indices Trend Up – Report

Consistent with historical precedents, a classic bearish scenario could be expected towards the end of the fourth quarter, followed by a recovery and an upward movement from current levels.

These analysts compared 2018 to 2018 and culminated in a bear market floor price of $ 3,100 – 84% below the all-time high of $ 20,000 in the past 12 months.

“At the moment our trading plan BTC Analog 2018 follows – where we expect a declining trading environment (short vol) from here until August, followed by a possible rally behind the EIP 1559 mainnet rollout (long spot, long call) and then the major sell-off of wave 5 in the fourth quarter after the Fed taper (spot sell, downside risk reversal on buy), ”they continued.

How high BTC / USD is now is hotly debated. One of the most optimistic and proven models is stock-to-flow, the creator of which PlanB described the price of 135,000 US dollars in December as the “worst-case scenario”.