Last Friday’s market crash pushed Bitcoin to a 50-day low of $ 53,250 as bearish sentiment eventually swallowed the spot market. The decrease was mainly due to concerns about the new coronavirus variant. The event was even dubbed “Black Friday” for BTC on social media as the price of the top coin hovered near the 54,000-55,000 range for almost 3 days.

Fortunately, on the last day of November, the price rose more than 6% from $ 53,250. This is possible thanks in part to news that MicroStrategy bought 7,002 bitcoins earlier this week at an average price of $ 59,187.

At the same time, the German stock market operator Deutsche Börse announced the listing of the physical Bitcoin Exchange Traded Note (ETN) from Invesco – which supports a trend reversal. So can Bitcoin do what the market expects in the last month of 2021, even if there has been a trend reversal?

Bitcoin’s super cycle

Big moon? When does the super cycle take place? When will BTC hit $ 100,000?

These are some of the most common questions in the crypto space lately, but for now, Bitcoin has yet to enter a super cycle. However, there are a number of indicators that estimate the current development of BTC and what to expect from it.

Watch the + 1 year HODL wave, historically the local high of the indicator often coincided with a new bull market. If the number of inactive coins drops quickly while the price rises, a new bull market can take place. Around 54.5% of the total number of coins in circulation did not move in +1 year, 8.9% less than the local high of 63.4% on 09.09. was set last year.

Source: Kraken Intelligence

The +1 year HODL wave made a 5-month high at the time of going to press and appears to be the starting point for an uptrend. According to the data, if the HODL wave is higher while the price recovers, a new trend will form and could be a sign that BTC is in the middle of a super cycle.

In 2013, BTC’s +1 year HODL wave hit a local high of 48.2% and the price of BTC was $ 20.4. When BTC hit a cycle high of $ 1,158 in late 2013, the indicator was at 38.8%. Also in January 2016, the indicator hit a local high of 61.5% and BTC at $ 380. When BTC peaked at $ 19,660 in December 2017, the HODL wave hit 43.1%. Hence, a bearish indicator coupled with a rise in prices could mark the start of the highly anticipated super cycle.

Price target next?

The logarithmic growth curve for Bitcoin shows 2 curved regressive trend lines that act as important support and resistance. Accordingly, it can be determined when a coin is “overbought” or “oversold”. As of now, BTC has to go from + 87% to + 141% to break into the “overbought” area, which is between $ 108,910 and $ 140,375.

Source: Kraken Intelligence

With a retail price of $ 58,215, BTC is in the 50th percentile of a logarithmic growth curve that ranges between $ 24,651 and $ 140,375. If a super cycle occurs, these levels could become easy targets for the crypto king.

As the price is currently recovering, it is advisable to keep a close eye on the end of the month to anticipate the movement ahead. In particular, the recent pullback has weighed on market sentiment, although the likelihood of ATH falling in 2021 is the smallest. However, BTC could soon change positions and rebound as the month closes higher.

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Minh Anh

According to AMBCrypto

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