There are a number of indicators in favor of being long – 5 things to watch out for about Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin started the week with prices still below $ 50,000, but is expected to prepare for a major disruptive journey.

After rejecting another upward move above USD 50,000, traders continued to expect short-term price movements – including the year-end.

With only 2 weeks left to 2021, the type of peak recession that characterized both 2013 and 2017 seems unlikely, but the indicators in the chain are all bullish.

With 90% of the Bitcoin supply now being mined, consider what could happen to investors this week.

Will the price go up?

Data from TradingView shows the price rose to $ 50,000 on Sunday but ultimately failed to hold.

BTC / USD 4-Hour Candlestick Chart | Source: TradingView

This story is well known and should not surprise seasoned market entrants.

Analyst William Clemente repeat:

“$ 53,000 is also my limit. I will be back when the price is back at this level. ”The customer review has been automatically translated from German.

While Bitcoin capitalization stays below $ 1 trillion and prices are below $ 53,000, other views aren’t too concerned about the market’s sideways movement this quarter.

As for the popular TechDev Twitter account, Bitcoin is still “in line” with previous bull years and looks similar to the fourth quarter of last year – just before BTC started appreciating.

https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1470185721944317957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener
PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow BTC pricing model, is bullish too. He argued that Bitcoin was actually in a consolidation phase that lasted for most of the year.

“Patience is the key factor.”

Stock-to-flow diagram and BTC price | The source: Plan B

Tight monetary policy

This week’s macro trigger is the Fed’s follow-up announcement on the status of its economic stimulus package.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting could provide valuable signals about the future of quantitative easing (QE) and the speed with which asset buying policies have “shrunk”.

Against the backdrop of ongoing inflation and the looming coronavirus outbreak, the Fed faces an inevitable balancing act when it comes to the credibility of the policies it has chosen.

Some predict the meeting is likely to be more disruptive for crypto markets than last week’s consumer price index data, with the highest US inflation since 1982. Last week, banking giant ING notice:

“There were no objections from other Fed officials, despite the uncertainty caused by the appearance of the Omicron variant. At its meeting next week, the Fed will announce an acceleration of QE easing, with a cut of $ 30 billion for January (to $ 60 billion for security purchases) and another $ 30 billion in May.

This means the Fed will end the program in early March and leave $ 8.8 billion in assets on its balance sheet – more than double what it was before the January 2020 pandemic.

Fed Balance Sheet Chart | Source: Federal Reserve

In the words of former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, major QE changes are changing the availability of “simple” money and affecting risky assets like Bitcoin.

Cole Garner: Bitcoin “ready”

It’s no secret that on-chain indicators remain strong despite spot prices falling nearly 40% below their all-time highs.

Now there are more optimistic indicators that give analyst Cole Garner confidence in the coming “green days”.

In a series Contributions On Twitter, the popular statistician sketched several “graphic” charts over the weekend, which have now turned into a clear upward trend.

He sums up the outlook for BTC:

“I think BTC is ready. Suddenly all of my favorite leading indicators are long and strong. ”

This contains the most important signals related to the OTC trading desk. These companies’ BTC balances rose last week in line with customer buying activity.

Although not always associated with price increases, OTC is viewed by Garner as “strong alpha”.

“One of the best leading indicators I’ve ever seen. Think more carefully, you will see that it makes very intuitive sense. It has turned completely upside down. ”

Bitcoin credit at OTC counters | Source: Cole Garner

Another indicator is the total volume delta (CVD) for Bitcoin whales. CVD is sloping up and Garner believes this is an infallible bullish sign.

CVD is used to determine the relationship between buyers and sellers during a market move. The data shows that buyers are still excited at the current level.

“This metric has become my most important indicator throughout the run. It doesn’t lie. ”

CVD whale | Source: Cole Garner

So far, not everyone is convinced of the OTC-related indicator. Many say the surge in OTC numbers is just a brief departure from the general downward trend. Others confirm that Bitcoin will end in pain in 2021 but will gradually consolidate back onto a bullish path next year.

Bitcoin ETF increases reserves

Continuing the previous trend, institutional investors are showing no signs of exiting BTC as it is a “high risk” asset under current conditions.

Among many OTC skeptics Data shows that Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are busy piling up and it is needed.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF, the first licensed spot Bitcoin ETF product in Canada, added 4,342 BTC to its reserves in December, up 17.6%.

Now at 28,974 BTC, Purpose shows what many have argued over the course of the year: exposure to Bitcoin is only a matter of time.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF stocks | Source: Coinglass

“It’s just an ETF,” said Lex Moskovski, chief investment officer at Moskovski Capital comment.

Meanwhile, the US rejection of a spot Bitcoin ETF remains controversial in the marketplace as industry officials and even lawmakers put pressure on regulators to explain their stance.

BitFury CEO Brian Brooks has to speak with the Senate Financial Services Committee last week:

Can someone explain to me why Fidelity Investments, one of America’s best known investment advisors, had to come to Canada to offer ETFs or why physically settled crypto ETFs are safe and legal in Germany, Brazil, Singapore and elsewhere, but why not in the United States ? Conditions?”

“Emotional roller coaster ride”

Right now the market is so sensitive that even a change in the price of Bitcoin by a few thousand dollars can change sentiment.

Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index | Source: alternative.me

The Fear and Greed Index has come back into focus in recent weeks due to the abrupt bear market in BTC.

Last week it hit its lowest level since July 16, 100 or “extreme fear.” It then almost doubled to 28/100 in one day before reversing to 16 and rising to 27 at the end of the week.

During that time, BTC was in a range of around $ 4,000.

“That reach turned my Twitter feed into an emotional roller coaster ride,” said analyst William Clemente to kid.

BTC price chart | Source: William Clemente

Meanwhile TechDev notice Sentiment remains lower than at the beginning of the year when Bitcoin opened at $ 29,000.

So is the relative strength index, an important metric that identifies the overbought and oversold phases of an asset at a given price.

TechDev added that the RSI is hiding a “big” bullish divergence.

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