In his latest blog post, co-founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes said that monetary policy in the US and China most likely won’t get any easier next time around.

And so Arthur Hayes argues that it is “worth the wait” when it comes to making new investments in crypto.

Arthur Hayes show Investment advice suitable for crypto investors

“As we near the end of the year and the first quarter of 2022, I don’t know how we can withdraw Bitcoin at $ 69,000 or Ether at $ 5,000,” wrote Hayes at the end of his latest blog post. He added that the most likely scenario for the next several months is a “dull sideways market with small swings down, followed by a calm rally”.

With this in mind, the former BitMEX CEO offered some investment advice tailored to three types of crypto investors:

• Investors are considering allocating more fiat money to crypto.
• Investors looking to maintain their macro crypto exposure.
• Investors actively trade between crypto and fiat positions.

For the first group, Hayes says he does not see a situation in which money has become “more comfortable or easier” than it is now. It is therefore advisable to “sit on the sidelines until the dust settles after the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike in March 2022 or June 2022”. The former CEO of the exchange suggested.

For those who want or need to split capital between different crypto assets, Hayes says tokens refer to the metaverse, the money game, or the token space. Non-fungible (NFT) is likely to outperform the crypto market.

Hayes explains: “The success of these topics does not depend on global monetary conditions, but on actual changes in behavior of actors, whose lives can be significantly improved through the introduction of new technologies.”

Finally, traders actively getting in and out of crypto and fiat positions may be interested in Hayes’ prediction that the USD will strengthen in the medium term. “Once again, monetary conditions will at best grind to a halt, and at worst, things will get tighter,” wrote Hayes, a former trader at Deutsche Bank and Citi.

Arthur Hayes’ stake in the global macroeconomic environment, arguing that cryptocurrency is the only free market that still exists

In the meantime, he also shared his thoughts on the current global macroeconomic environment, including sensitive issues such as the ongoing Evergrande crisis in China and the possibility of a reduction or further stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the US Federal Reserve.

He said that if Beijing were to bail out bondholders, it would be a step back from its stated position of allowing the economic slowdown. Should that happen, it could be seen as a “signal that the influx of cheap credit into China (and, subsequently, the world) will drive up all kinds of risky asset prices,” BitMEX co-founder wrote.

In addition, Hayes describes the cryptocurrency market as “the only free market in the world” in the article. It therefore has the potential to act as “a single operational smoke alarm” for problems that may have arisen elsewhere in the financial system, he added.

“One could argue that the crypto explosion, with Bitcoin and Ether on the 4th line for a sell-off.

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