It looks like the crypto market has regained a foothold after last week’s volatile deleveraging when Bitcoin price finally retested the $ 48,800 mark. For the past week, Bitcoin has been mostly limited to the $ 45,600 to $ 51,000 range.

When Bitcoin retested the $ 48,850 mark, predictions of a bull run in the markets rose, but is it too early to expect this?

Limited focus

Fear and uncertainty overwhelm the markets before the important Fed meeting. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 28/100, up from 21/100 on Tuesday (Dec. 14), suggesting that market sentiment has shifted from “extreme fear” to “extreme fear”.

However, if you look at Realized Cap (RCs) 7 Day Oscillator (7D Oscillator), it is clear that Bitcoin has seen some significant losses, similar to the May high.

Source: CryptoQuant

In addition, the Output Return Ratio (SOPR) of the Short Term Holders (STH) shows an overall negative trend, which means that STH mostly sells at a loss. With new all-time highs (ATHs) looking further and further into the distance, one reason for the consolidation could be the lengthening Bitcoin cycle.

The Bitcoin cycle is getting longer

Looking at the stretch cycle during retesting the black 0.5 Fib support curve, it can be seen that after the process was completed in 2013, it took Bitcoin very little time to hit the ATH of the growth curve channel (curve) in a bull market. While Bitcoin took almost 3 months to climb to ATH in 2017 after retesting the level.

Source: RektCapital

As the cycles get longer, Bitcoin will likely take longer to test the levels. Notably, Bitcoin has fallen 39% since the $ 69,000 region was rejected. A similar retracement was seen in 2017, when the price fell 40% at a similar point in the cycle.

So Bitcoin is currently doing the same thing, down 39% and in the process of retesting the yellow 0.382 Fib curve for support.

For Bitcoin to get back on track, it just needs to keep the yellow 0.382 Fib curve as support for now, just like in 2013 and 2017.

Source: RektCapital

So, given the recent consolidation along with the potentially lengthening Bitcoin cycle, it’s best to keep an eye on them and wait for a new ATH to likely arrive anytime soon.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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