“Bitcoin winter” threatens the future of Vietnamese investors

The fact that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have shown no signs of recovery, especially towards the end of December, worries many investors about a prolonged downward cycle.

Bitcoin has less than half a month to hit the milestone $ 100,000/ dong according to previous predictions of many experts. However, this milestone will be impossible as the world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to adhere to the lower threshold. $ 60,000 since mid-November.

Compared to the current price fluctuates around $ 47,000/ dong, Bitcoin is still 30.61% from the ATH (all-time high) as of 11/11. away, even far from the expected mark $ 100,000 this 53%.

The sudden collapse of the market half a month ago exceeded most investors’ expectations. According to the Fear and Greed Index, the general sentiment of investors continues to hover at the fear level and sometimes dip to the extreme fear level.

Despite the bad situation, local optimists still believe that Bitcoin price can at least break through ATH by the end of this month. On the other hand, some other investors were looking for ways to take profits or reduce losses, fearing that the “Bitcoin winter” was approaching.

The crypto market is in dark times. Photo: Binance.

Is winter coming?

This sharp correction is reminiscent of the “Bitcoin winter” that took place in late 2017 and early 2018. This is a concept that refers to the darkest and darkest time of the cryptocurrency market when it is constantly in a downtrend.

According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin became a hot topic of discussion on December 16, 2017 when it was almost surpassed $ 20,000/Copper. However, Bitcoin price quickly slipped ahead of the massive investor sell-off. A year later, the price of Bitcoin fell 3,000 USD/ dong, 83% less than the maximum.

The Bitcoin winter of 2018 plunged many Vietnamese investors into a loss-making state. Some people lose little, some people accept to reduce their losses, suffer losses of tens or even hundreds of millions of dong.

It wasn’t until 2019 that Bitcoin price showed signs of recovery and began to thrive towards the end of the year. Bitcoin’s value could fall 80-90% from its record high, according to Bobby Lee, the former CEO of the BTCC exchange.

Bitcoin bubble burst price movement 2017-2018. Photo: CoinMarketCap.

“The Bitcoin winter can last for years and, after strong bull runs, affect cryptocurrencies. The price will go down and then the bubble will burst. This cycle is expected to last 2-3 years, ”warned the expert.

Bitcoin had a successful 2021 breaking price records many times. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has doubled.

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and the gentle step taken by the authorities in many countries, including the US and El Salvador, are one of the reasons for the cryptocurrency craze.

However, in the face of a number of negative market pressures, particularly the tough crackdown on cryptocurrencies by the Chinese authorities, the price of Bitcoin once fell catastrophically. $ 30,000/Copper.

The last time bitcoin price was down more than 30% 45,000 USD/ dong after the U.S. government passed a new infrastructure spending bill that included taxation and tightening regulation of the cryptocurrency market.

“It’s hard to forget what happened last crypto winter, nobody wants to see it anymore. Investors expect a price boom later this year, “said Naeem Aslam, chief analyst at AvaTrade.

“Cryptocurrency markets are currently tending to break out sharply, except of course in the case of ‘Winter'”, emphasized Naeem Aslam.

Vietnamese investors are impatient

On December 16, after the news that the US Federal Reserve (FED) continued to buy bonds and did not raise interest rates until March next year, the price of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Fantom, Solana, etc. Polkadot … suddenly rose increased sharply by 10-20%.

However, the market rally soon cooled and began to decline this morning. This sign shows that the Fed’s announcement is not strong enough to attract the market.

The fact that the Bitcoin price contradicts the predictions of many experts can also dampen expectations of a new market boom and thus drag out the negative sentiment of investors.

Dinh Tung – 25 years old, investor in Hanoi – joined at the end of August with a capital of approx 1,500 USD. However, that player’s account is currently under 900 USDthat has evaporated 40% of its value.

Investors strengthened to amass commodities as the market fell. Photo: @woonomic.

“I do not intend to continue investing. If the market doesn’t move, I will consider the option of short selling some portfolios and withdrawing to my wallet. The number of losing portfolios is still there, waiting for an appropriate exit point, ”he said.

According to the analyst Willy Woo, the statistical data on the number of wallets that hold less than 1 bitcoin on average for 7 days is exploding. This is evidence that retail investors are currently hoarding cryptocurrencies.

However, he believes the downtrend still occurs when the market lacks buyers. The reduced liquidity on the buyer side is also the reason for the high volatility of the macro peaks.

In fact, according to our records, domestic retail investors are showing signs of running out of money to flow into cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the ongoing negative market trend is making new investors reluctant to participate.

Another Hanoi investor named Duy Anh said market movements are confusing many players. If we keep adding capital, the current risk is very high.

“It’s impossible to predict anything when it comes to crypto investing. The market can fully recover if a lot of good news comes out, especially on legal issues. When Bitcoin doesn’t outperform quickly $ 50,000/ dong next week I’ll convert the portfolio to USDT in case the market sells out, ”said Duy Anh.

Since November, this investor has had to invest four times more capital to reach the bottom, on average each deposit is around 1,000 USD. However, the fact that the market is maintaining a downtrend causes Duy Anh’s account to lose another 10%.

“Everyone says to be greedy when others are afraid. But if you’re wrong, you face very long-term capital lockup, not to mention the worst-case scenario where you lose everything. During the uptrend, everyone cheered that Bitcoin could hit hundreds of thousands of dollars. The reaction of investors when all predictions go wrong will shape the market move ahead, ”he said.