XRP price has continued to rise after falling more than 70% in a correction from April 2021 to January 2022. However, a repeat of the 2018-2019 fractal could spell trouble for its long-term bullish outlook.

Why is the XRP 50-week EMA important?

On February 13, XRP peaked at $0.916, above the 50-week exponential moving average (red wave) of $0.833. The move higher, while indecisive, opened up the possibility for further upside momentum, mainly driven by the buying sentiment that historically surrounded the aforementioned wave.

XRP/USD weekly frame price chart with 50-week EMA | Source: TradingView

The bulls successfully reclaimed the 50-week EMA as support on July 27, 2020, more than a year after it turned into resistance. After that, XRP price surged more than 820% to $1.98 in April 2021, its best level in more than three years.

Conversely, during the 2018-2020 bearish cycles, the 50-week EMA acted as strong resistance for XRP in many instances. This demonstrates the wave’s ability to counter bullish rebound sentiment like that which occurred during the current rally.

Can XRP Get $1 Back?

XRP now needs to hold firmly above the 50-week EMA to build momentum to claw back $1 in the coming sessions.

This level is roughly 25% above the current price level and coincides with XRP’s two main resistance targets. The first is a multi-month downward sloping trendline that has been limiting the upside since April 2021.

XRP/USD weekly frame price chart with bullish target | Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the second target is the 0.382 Fib line drawn between the $2.7 high and the $0.1 low, which severely limits trends by acting as both support and resistance .

Still a lower high, $1 is not promising to take XRP out of a correction. Instead, it could offer traders an opportunity to lock in temporary gains, which could see XRP pullback towards the upcoming support target near $0.71, according to a retracement chart.

discount case

Conversely, a failure above the 50-week EMA resistance could result in XRP suffering a pullback towards the 200-week EMA (green wave) near $0.54.

This move carries the risk of the price staying within the range defined by the 50-week EMA as resistance and the 200-week EMA as support, potentially leading to another downside breakout. A bearish outlook comes from a single fractal session from June 2018 to June 2019 as shown in the chart below.

Weekly XRP/USD frame price chart | Source: TradingView

Notably, XRP’s surge to a record high of $3.55 in January 2018 coincided with the formation of the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) forming a lower high, confirming a bearish divergence.

The price then dipped below the 50-week EMA but chose the 200-week EMA as support. The RSI decline is also near the 37 level, just above its oversold 30 level.

XRP is trending sideways within the above moving averages while the RSI remains above 37. However, in June 2019, after XRP broke below the 200-day EMA support, XRP fell as low as $0.10 in March 2020.

If the fractal develops as it did in 2018-2019, there is a risk of XRP falling below the 200-week EMA support near $0.54 in the coming sessions. Such a move could shift XRP’s preliminary downside target to the 0.786 Fib line (near $0.43), as suggested by the Fibonacci retracement plot drawn from $0.14 to $1.52.

Weekly XRP/USD frame price chart with downside targets | Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, a break of $0.43 would place XRP’s next downside target at $0.22, a historically high volume level.

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