Bitcoin March 1 technical analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied significantly on Feb. 28, with its RSI and MACD on the verge of generating a strong bullish signal.

Bitcoin is printing a large bullish candlestick

Bitcoin has been up since January 24th and appears to be moving along an ascending support line.

This line has been confirmed several times so far. On January 24th and February 24th, Bitcoin almost broke below this support line, but created a long wick below it, and revived the line shortly after.

On Feb. 28, Bitcoin rallied sharply, creating a bullish bar in the 15% range. In terms of size, this is the largest bullish bar in over a year.

The next resistances are found at $44,400 and $51,150. The latter is the 0.5 Fib retracement level and horizontal resistance area, making it more significant.

Bitcoin March 1 technical analysis

BTC/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

Indicators of bullish signals

Technical indicators for the daily time frame are bullish. This becomes especially clear when the RSI crosses above 50 (green symbol). The RSI is a momentum indicator and readings above 50 are often taken as a sign of an uptrend.

Additionally, the MACD, formed by the short-term and long-term moving averages (MAs), is rising and on the verge of breaking into positive territory. This means that the short-term MA is almost faster than the long-term MA.

The last time the RSI surged above 50 while the MACD was also in positive territory was in October 2021 when Bitcoin was in the process of rallying to all-time highs.

In early February 2022, when the RSI was above 50 (red circle) but the MACD was still in negative territory, Bitcoin failed to continue its uptrend.

Therefore, it is important for the MACD to move into positive territory for the uptrend to be confirmed. This could also help BTC break the $44,400 level.

Bitcoin March 1 technical analysis

BTC/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

More interestingly, the RSI has not even broken out of the overbought zone, which usually precedes a reversal.

Therefore, the daily and 6-hour time frames offer a bullish outlook, suggesting that the uptrend will continue.

Bitcoin March 1 technical analysis

BTC/USDT 6 hour chart | Source: TradingView

Count waves

The number of long-term waves is still unclear.

As far as short-wave counting is concerned, there are still two main possibilities.

The first possibility suggests that the ongoing rise is part of an ABC corrective structure. In it, wave A and wave C have an exact ratio of 1:1. This indicates that the uptrend is probably over.

However, the fact that the peak of wave C is already above the resistance line of the current ascending parallel channel casts doubt on this possibility.

A surge above the local high at $45,850 (red line) on Feb 10 will invalidate this wave count.

Bitcoin March 1 technical analysis

BTC/USDT 2 hour chart | Source: TradingView

The bullish wave count shows that gains are part of a five-wave bullish impulse that may lead to new highs. Among them, BTC is currently in wave three.

If BTC manages to sustain above the channel’s resistance line and creates a horizontal corrective pattern, it will indicate that this is the right wave number.

A drop below the wave one high at $40,330 will invalidate that particular wave number.

Bitcoin March 1 technical analysis

BTC/USDT 2 hour chart | Source: TradingView

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions

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