The combination of bearish factors this week was enough to push Bitcoin (BTC) price to a 46-day low, and that wiped out almost 86% of call options in September. $ 2 billion will expire on September 24th.

There is still room for some surprises, especially given the 8:00 UTC deadline on September 24th. The incentives for the bears seem meager, however, as the sub-$ 40,000 test caused less than $ 250 million in futures liquidations on Sept. 21.

On September 22, the Evergrande Group allied some default concerns after confirming that it would pay interest on a domestic bond. Still, investors still expect the company to miss out on dollar-denominated bonds, which are mostly held by international investors.

Recent moves above $ 48,000 on September 18th and 19th were insufficient to break the 20-day moving average resistance. The cops are now hoping for a “return to normal” as fears of China’s traditional indebtedness are over. In addition, the September 22 interview with SEC chairman Gary Gensler in the Washington Post did not reveal any short-term action.

If historical data has any role to play in the price of Bitcoin, September has shown negative performance for four of the last five years. This bearish trend will continue when BTC closes below $ 47,110 in September, the closing price on August 31st.

The September monthly expiration date will be a strength test for the bulls as 86% of the $ 2 million call (call) options were placed at $ 46,000 or more. If BTC trades below this price on September 17th, the open interest for a neutral to bearish put option will drop to $ 285 million.

A call option is the right to buy Bitcoin at a set price on a set expiration date. As a result, the $ 50,000 call option will become worthless if BTC trades below such a price at 8:00 AM UTC on September 24th.

Bulls dominate BTC price but are too confident

Taking a broader perspective gives the bulls a significant advantage as the total open interest of the call (call) instrument is $ 2 billion, resulting in 90% put options.

However, this data is misleading as the bulls’ over-optimism is likely to ruin most of their bets. Even an opening profit of less than $ 1.05 billion from put (put) options may be enough to offset these competitive forces.

Here are the four most likely scenarios considering current prices. An imbalance in favor of either party represents a potential gain from the expiry. The following data shows how many contracts will be available based on the expiry price on Friday.

• From $ 38,000 to $ 40,000: 3,390 calls versus 8,695 bookings. Net income is $ 21 million in favor of protective (bear) put instruments.
• From $ 40,000 to $ 46,000: The net result is a bear-bull balance.
• From $ 46,000 to $ 50,000: 11,820 calls versus 3,050 bookings. The net result was $ 42 million in favor of the (bullish) call option.
• Over $ 50,000: 16,370 calls versus 1,400 bookings. Bulls will lead $ 75 million.

This rough estimate naively takes into account call (buy) options used only in bullish strategies and put (sell) options in neutral to bearish trades. Real life is not that easy now as more complex investment strategies may have been implemented.

Incentive for the bears to keep BTC below $ 46,000

Buyers and sellers will do their best in the hours before the Friday expiry. Bears will try to minimize losses by keeping the price below $ 46,000. On the other hand, if BTC stays above such a level, the bulls have a good grip on the situation.

Is the $ 75 million win big enough to warrant a $ 50,000 rally? Not exactly, but as mentioned earlier, these are simplified estimates. It will largely depend on how the market makers and arbitrage tables are positioned, which anyone can guess.

There’s still room for additional volatility ahead of Friday, but both sides look equally balanced despite the eye-catching $ 3 billion headline.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement carries risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.