There is growing evidence of a breakout in BTC price, but so far the resistance at $ 50,000 remains in check.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week above known levels below $ 50,000, but the anticipation of the start of a major disruption is growing.

After declining new wins of over $ 50,000, BTC / USD leaves traders guessing until the end when it comes to short-term price promotions – including closing times.

In just two weeks, it seems unlikely that the pattern of failures that marked both 2013 and 2017 will repeat itself, but the indicators in the chain are all showing an upward trend.

With 90% of Bitcoin supply now officially depleted, Cointelegraph will be taking a look this week at what may be in store for investors.

The same just different?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that Sunday was marked by another rally to USD 50,000 and ultimately could not be held beyond that.

This story is well known and should not surprise seasoned market entrants.

“53K is my cash flow too. Let’s turn around and we’re back to business, ”analyst William Clemente repeat.

While Bitcoin remains well below $ 1 trillion in assets under $ 53,000, other opinions aren’t concerned about the market’s unexpected sideways movement this fourth quarter.

As for the popular TechDev Twitter account, Bitcoin is still and appears to be “in tune” with previous bull cycle years same, similar through Q4 of last year – just before BTC / USD started rising.

#BTC Weekly

From my point of view there are many reasons to lower the price here as it is before the first leg final at the end of 2020. pic.twitter.com/62AptElE2G

– TechDev (@ TechDev_52) December 13, 2021

Elsewhere, PlanB, the creator of stock-to-flow BTC pricing models, is bullish too. He uploaded a presentation of one of his forecasts, arguing that Bitcoin was actually in a consolidation phase that lasted for most of the year.

“Patience is the key,” he said more.

To rejuvenate or not to rejuvenate?

This week’s macro trigger comes in the form of the Federal Reserve and the subsequent announcement of the status of its asset purchase program.

A session of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could provide valuable insights into the future of quantitative easing (QE) and the pace of the “declines” in asset purchases.

Between the inflationary environment and the ongoing risk of a coronavirus outbreak, the Fed faces an inevitable balancing act when it comes to the credibility of the policies it has chosen.

As Cointelegraph reported, some say the meeting for the crypto market is likely to be more tumultuous than last week’s consumer price index (CPI) data, which showed the highest rates of inflation in the United States since 1982.

“Without objection from other Fed officials, despite the uncertainty surrounding the emergence of the Omicron variant, the Fed will announce a gradual acceleration of QE over the next week, with a decline of $ 30 billion for January (to $ 60 billion an Purchases) and another $ 30 billion in February, ”said a statement from banking giant ING last week.

“This means the Fed will end the program in early March, leaving the Federal Reserve with $ 8.8 billion in balance sheet assets – more than double its pre-March pandemic level. 1 year 2020!”

In the words of former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, big changes in QE are effectively changing the availability of “easy” money and having a dramatic impact on risky assets like Bitcoin.

Analyst Cole Garner: Bitcoin “ready”

It’s no secret that on-chain indicators remain strong despite spot prices falling nearly 40% below their all-time highs.

Now more key figures have arrived that give analyst Cole Garner serious confidence in the upcoming “green days”.

In one a series of posts on Twitter Over the weekend, the famous statistician sketched some of his “go-to” charts, which have now turned into a clear upward trend.

“I think BTC is ready,” is how he summed up the BTC / USD outlook.

“Suddenly all of my favorite early indicators are long and strong.”

The signals come mainly from over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. The BTC balances of these institutes increased last week according to the buying activity between customers.

While OTC doesn’t always match the price increases, it is still targeted by Garner as “strong alpha”.

“One of the best leading indicators I’ve ever seen. The more you think about it, the more intuitive it makes sense, ”he wrote.

“It’s gone and completely upside down.”

Another is the combined volume delta (CVD) for Bitcoin whales, which is sloping upward in what Garner calls an infallible bullish sign.

CVD is used to determine the relationship between buyers and sellers during a market move, and its data shows that buyer interest remains similarly strong at current levels.

“This metric has become my most important indicator during this growth phase,” he commented.

“It doesn’t lie.”

So far, not everyone is convinced, and feedback suggests that the surge in OTC numbers might be just that – a brief divergence in the general downtrend. Others cling to the narrative that calls for Bitcoin to end on a groan in 2021 and gradually solidify on its way back to the uptrend next year.

Bitcoin ETFs increase their reserves

Continuing the previous trend, institutional investors are showing no signs of leaving BTC as a “high risk” asset under the current conditions.

Amid OTC doubts, new data suggests that Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are busy building up and the need to do so is there.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF, Canada’s first licensed spot ETF product for Bitcoin, added 4,342 BTC to its reserves in December, up 17.6%.

Now at 28,974 BTC, Purpose shows what many have argued over the course of the year – that Bitcoin’s exposure to institutions is a tidal wave that will sooner or later have to serve.

“It’s just an ETF,” said Lex Moskovski, CEO of Moskovski Capital, commented.

Meanwhile, the US rejection of a spot Bitcoin ETF remains controversial in the marketplace as industry officials and even lawmakers put pressure on regulators to agree their stance.

Can someone explain to me why Fidelity Investments, one of America’s best known investment advisors, had to come to Canada to offer ETFs, or why physically settled crypto ETFs are safe and legal in Germany, Brazil, Singapore and elsewhere, but somehow not in the United States States? Brian Brooks, BitFury CEO, said last week in a testimony to the Senate Financial Services Committee.

“Emotional roller coaster ride”

Maybe the market just doesn’t know how to think.

Related: 2 key indicators for Bitcoin trading show the low of the BTC price

If the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is any guide, changes in price activity across Bitcoin could now change sentiment by just a few thousand dollars up or down.

Fear & Greed has returned to the spotlight in the past few weeks thanks to the unexpected nature of the BTC downturn.

Last week it hit its lowest since July 16 of 100, or “extreme fear.” It then nearly doubled to 28/100 in just one day before going back to 16 at the end of the week and then rising to 27.

During that time, BTC / USD was in a range of around $ 4,000.

“This reach made my Twitter feed an emotional roller coaster ride,” says analyst William Clemente to kid along with a graph showing the psychological response to recent price movements.

TechDev in the meantime notice That sentiment remains lower than it was earlier in the year when Bitcoin opened at $ 29,000.

Likewise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key figure that identifies the overbought and oversold phases of an asset at a given price.

This hides a “big” bullish divergence, TechDev added.