It’s been three months since Bitcoin hit the ATH, but an indicator suggests that holders may wait longer before starting the next bull run.

In a variety of tweets On July 17, analyst Ecoinometrics announced that the 55% drop from ATH this year is the second-longest drop in the history of the Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin will be stuck at $ 30,000 for a while

It has been 95 days since Bitcoin hit $ 64,500 and a major correction has begun. Investors are losing patience, but despite strong fundamentals, Bitcoin’s spot market price action doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to leave $ 30,000 behind.

After a 55% drop from ATH, Bitcoin is threatening price prediction models, including stock-to-flow (S2F), like never before.

However, if history is an accurate clue, Bitcoin could continue trending sideways for months before recovering to beat the previous ATH. As Ecoinometrics notes, there was a period of 197 days between the two ATHs in 2013.

“This is one of the longest slumps Bitcoin has seen in a bull market since halving.

95 days are only half as long as the 2013 crash. “

Source: Econometrics / Twitter

At the time, Bitcoin was more than 69% below its previous ATH, meaning the current market structure is below $ 30,000 within historical standards.

However, this year’s Bitcoin price events show the closest resemblance to 2013

Ecoinometry concludes:

“In terms of price development, this correction also looks very similar to 2013. If this continues, Bitcoin will remain stuck at $ 30,000 for a while.”

Small investors are piling up

How Bitcoin magazine Reportedly, recent behavior in the chain has shown that $ 30,000 is more than just a major psychological layer for Bitcoin.

Along with many indicators to back up its importance, investors are again piling up coins, including those that were previously sold at the current level.

At the weekend it was Willy Woo To mark Buying activity by retail investors and the buy-sell ratio of the whale classes.

“Retail is driving the bitcoin bull market. If they stop buying, it is a bear market warning. But they don’t stop buying. Last 30 days: whales sold 4,000 BTC, retail investors bought 31,000 BTC.

Source: Willy Woo / Twitter

According to the Willy Woo, whales only affect Bitcoin’s short-term price action, a theory that contradicts the belief of many traders that large corporations determine the state of the market.

“Whale only drives the market for a short period of time (it’s the most high-profile meme). In the macro timeframe, I am referring to whales, dolphins and sharks that will trigger the start of a bull market. Private investors are driving the middle and the end of the bull market. “

Looking at whale activity, Woo found that small whales offset the selling pressures from larger whales.

“My data are all whales (owners who hold over 1,000 BTC minus exchanges are also ‘whales’ in the raw data). What happens is that big whales sell, small whales pile up and narrow almost neutrally. “

Source: Willy Woo / Twitter

On-chain analyst Will Clemente to repeat Woo’s findings suggest that whales owned between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC will continue to buy.

“Hold 1,921 whale entities 4,216,730 BTC. That’s a nice increase, but keep in mind that this has been on a downward trend for months. Perhaps this is a new change in the tendency for whales to pile up rather than spread out. New whales should also be observed. “

Source: Will Clemente / Twitter

In May, Willy Woo believed Bitcoin was in the middle of a bull cycle and said Bitcoin’s tough correction from nearly $ 65,000 to around $ 30,000 could be good for the market’s long-term prospects. He also predicts that Bitcoin will soar to $ 157,000 once this “retreat of fate” ends.

Teacher

According to AZCoin News

Follow the Youtube Channel | Subscribe to telegram channel | Follow the Facebook page trang