Looking at Bitcoin’s chart over an extended period of time, one analyst says it’s in the midst of a major bear cycle.

According to a consolidation of historically accurate technical indicators by independent market analyst Ari Rudd, Bitcoin is likely to fall below $30,000 in the coming months.

Rudd was publish a Feb. 14 thread explaining why Bitcoin’s continued price rally — from below $33,000 on Jan. 24 to around $42,000 on Feb. 14 — may be uncertain.

In doing so, Rudd presented at least three long-term technical setups with extremely bearish prospects.

They are listed as follows:

Bitcoin model LFG

Rudd’s Logarithmic Fractal Growth (LFG) is a fractal-based Bitcoin price prediction model that includes a “logarithmic scale on both axes”. It then predicts where Bitcoin might appear next based on historical price action.

The analyst applied the LFG pattern on the monthly BTC/USD chart.

As shown in the chart below, LFG levels in previous bearish cycles were viewed as distribution accumulation zones for traders. So, Rudd noted that Bitcoin has yet to drop into its bottom range, a range known as the buy zone, which coincides with the bottoms seen during the 2018 and 2020 halvings.

BTC/USD monthly frame price chart with LFG. pattern | Source: Ari Rudd, TradingView

“We’re still a few months away from reaching the accumulation phase,” Rudd stressed, adding:

“Potential buy scenario would be $24k-$27k level.”

Support band

Like the LFG pattern, the quarterly timeframe moving averages have coincided exactly with the end of Bitcoin’s bearish cycles, including 2018 and 2020.

Specifically, these bands represent a series of moving averages (MAs) that allow traders to identify key areas of resistance and support by looking at price in relation to the MAs. Every previous bitcoin top-to-bottom trend has exhausted near its so-called “support band.”

As Bitcoin undergoes another correction from its all-time high (ATH) of $69,000, the analyst believes the strong rally from near $33,000 could turn into a bull trap as the price is “retesting the support band on the quarterly chart.”

Quarterly BTC/USD price chart with moving average bands | Source: TradingView

As a result, the moving averages indicator is at risk of pushing Bitcoin to $25,000 or below.

Band resistance in weekly frame, RSI

Another moving average indicator, but on a weekly timeframe, has been instrumental in capping Bitcoin’s ongoing price rally.

“Strong resistance,” as Rudd suggests, combined with Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides additional bearish sentiment.

Weekly BTC/USD price chart with resistance band and RSI | Source: TradingView

The RSI gives traders signals of both bullish and bearish price momentum. Rudd noted that buying momentum has moderated around a down-sloping RSI trendline, suggesting a potential sell-off for Bitcoin.

Now a bullish factor

In contrast to the bearish technical indicators mentioned above, there are a number of on-chain indicators that offer a temporary bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

As Bitcoin Magazine As previously mentioned, Bitcoin addresses with at least 1,000 BTC have started accumulating more during the recent market rally, suggesting that the wealthiest crypto investors are supporting BTC’s recovery move.

Bitcoin balances on exchanges | Source: Glassnode

Additionally, the number of bitcoins held by exchanges fell to its lowest level in more than three years on Feb. 13, data from Glassnode shows showsin a downtrend that has remained intact since the March 2020 low.

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