Bitcoin started the new week in a precarious area – below $ 45,000 and below some major moving averages (MAs). What will happen next?

After nearly a week since a series of liquidated leveraged positions pushed the price down to $ 42,800, Bitcoin has lost most of its subsequent rebound.

The weekend didn’t show much change and for now the falling volatility has stabilized somewhat. With BTC down more than 14% in one week, the article examines 5 things that can help traders predict the next move.

Stocks should recover

Stocks are expected to outperform in the coming days after selling pressures added to the drag on Bitcoin in the first half of September.

After a bearish week alongside Bitcoin, the stock is likely to rebound and continue its signature trend since the coronavirus crash in March 2020.

Charles Edwards, CEO of digital asset management company Capriole Investments, forecast:

“Expect stocks to rebound this week and bring some relief to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s general relationship with macro trends has become increasingly questionable over the past year. However, shocks to the system continue to affect the price of BTC, as demonstrated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) virtual summit in Jackson Hole in early September.

“The world still views Bitcoin as a risky investment. Almost every Bitcoin correction in 2021 correlates with an S&P500 correction of -2% or more. “

BTC / USD and S&P 500 | The source: Charles Edwards

On the other hand, rising stocks are likely to dampen the strength of the US dollar. This also gives Bitcoin more breathing room.

The US dollar currency index (DXY) rallied quickly to 93 last week before pausing to consolidate its previous gains.

Spot prices continue to fall below the bullish indicators

Many suggest that macro moves could be the main driver when it comes to BTC price action this week.

After price fluctuations over the weekend, there was a last-minute volatility on Sunday that pushed BTC below $ 45,000.

With spot traders hedge their positions with bearish bets, there may never have been such a large discrepancy between on-chain metrics, adoption, and price.

“Stablecoin liquidity is growing, Bitcoin has reached a 3-year low on the stock exchanges, and acceptance is increasing. If macro factors do not intervene, prices will rise in the short term, ”said Lex Moskovski, CEO of Moskovski Capital. summary.

Moskovski then added that the macro markets actually started the week in the green and stablecoins that were not used briefly as collateral made a clear bullish argument.

Stablecoins are high at all times and are not used as collateral for shorts.

Legacy Finance opens green.

What’s your thesis for the sale, soldier? pic.twitter.com/J2PMtsRVWn

– Lex Moskovski (@mskvsk) September 13, 2021

As reported, current estimates put the potential minimum prices at $ 43,000 and $ 38,000, respectively. A recovery from these levels is still possible, albeit much lower than the major MAs.

Bitcoin Price Chart and 50-Day MA | Source: Tradingview

September was a historically bad month for Bitcoin, so the “real” uptrend forecasts see a date starting from October.

Famous Twitter account Lark Davis emphasize this morning:

“Keep in mind that Bitcoin typically has a bearish September and great volatility in Q4. BTC could still hit $ 100,000 by the end of the year.”

Bitcoin price chart 4 hours | Source: TradingView

But the experienced dealer Peter Brandt sounds the alarm for the time being.

“There is a name for this chart. Anyone want to guess what it’s called? ”He tweeted next to a daily chart showing a bearish pennant structure.

There is a name for this chart pattern. Anyone want to guess what it’s called $ BTC pic.twitter.com/qNqSZIPAPu

– Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 13, 2021

“Dancing with 2017”

As if that weren’t enough, when it comes to this halving cycle, Bitcoin is still dancing with 2017 in terms of price movements this year.

follow data from the trading platform Decentrader signals this week that BTC 2021 is still on course for halving next year.

New @decentrader Chart showing the comparison of Bitcoin from the halving lows.

Dancing with 2017 at the moment.

The bottom of the blue line is approximately $ 92,000 for reference.https://t.co/dmxkMl2FMy pic.twitter.com/PDjTZxsxvg

– filbfilb (@filbfilb) September 12, 2021

“Decentrader’s new chart compares Bitcoin after halving the floors. Dancing with 2017 at the moment. The bottom of the blue line is $ 92,000. “

The graph below shows the miner turmoil in May. Previously, between the highs of 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin fell to create a new pattern in May that went down and trended. This continues to this day.

Bitcoin bulls comparison table | Source: Decenttrader

Reportedly, the “double-top” phenomenon remains analysts’ predictions for the end of Bitcoin in 2021 – similar to 2013 and 2017 – with a decline correlating with movements in May to $ 29,000.

Monthly illiquid supply hits all-time high

One trait that took hold in last week’s bearish environment that was different from earlier times was investor behavior: people kept buying.

In contrast to panic in periods like March 2020, there was ample supply last week as the speculators being sold were eager to buy.

According to statistician Willy Woo, all classes of Bitcoin investors have topped up their positions or have remained neutral during the recent turmoil.

“Lately, whales have been gathering. Small fish keep piling up. Holders of 10-1000 BTC are largely unchanged. The reserves of public holdings decrease (mostly stock exchanges and exchange-traded funds decline, while companies are added). “

Bitcoin supply distribution diagram | The source: Willy Woo

If bitcoin’s supply is in more demand than ever, the same data reinforces that view. As analyst William Clemente noted, Hodlers have not been very concerned over the past week.

“93% of Bitcoin’s supply remains unchanged for at least a month. This is an all time high. Just one more metric that shows how bullish the supply dynamics are. “

Bitcoin HODL wave | The source: William Clemente

Greed turns into fear

The level of investor sentiment shows a significant change. index This week’s Fear & Greed offers some curious data on market sentiment.

The price drop to 42,800 US dollars pushed the index from “extreme greed” to “fear” and lasted until Sunday.

At the end of the weekend, however, the index rebounded into the “greedy” zone, although the price movement actually continued to decline.

At the time of writing, the index is currently at 44/100 – still in the “fear” range while BTC trades below $ 45,000.

Fear & Greed Index | Source: alternative.me

In addition, the financing rates on the stock exchanges are currently slightly positive, but do not reduce the likelihood of a “short squeeze” that drives the price development.

Bitcoin Funding Rate | The source: Bybt

You can see the BTC price here.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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