Today, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook is deteriorating after the price fell to an intraday low of $ 45,672, far from the promising rally above $ 50,000 over the weekend.

When a year draws to a close and the all-time high is close to 33%, traders could adjust their expectations and raise the $ 100,000 target by 2022.

Intraday traders, 4-hour chart watchers, and leveraged users will likely get nervous (unless they close from $ 50,000), but zoom out a little to see where Bitcoin price is at.

BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

On the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is struggling to break out of the trend of lower highs and, aside from buying the break from 4.

Moving averages have always been a relatively easy way to trade BTC, and currently the 20-day MA (blue) is below the 50-day MA (orange). Some traders simply buy when the asset closes above the 20MA for a few days and sell when the price drops below the MA as this is a sign that the short term trend is weakening.

According to this theory, momentum traders can wait for BTC to close the daily candle above the moving average at USD 53,000 before opening new long positions. Risk averse traders can wait for the 20 MA to cross the 50 MA for a clearer sign of a trend reversal. In retrospect, last year’s price action proved that this strategy was very effective.

Some traders expect a deeper decline

More experienced traders say that Bitcoin tends to create a double-top, M-top, and head-and-shoulders pattern after hitting a new all-time high. Recently, analysts on Twitter pointed to what they think are two tops that represent a bearish trend reversal pattern.

BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

If we look at the daily timeframe, we can begin to see what looks like a head and shoulders pattern. The current decline and subsequent consolidation will eventually complete the right shoulder with the cutout at $ 41,500 and the price target being an incredibly low number so it won’t be written here.

Traders will also find that the excerpt from the above head-and-shoulders pattern coincides with a large gap in the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) indicator, indicating huge buying interest at USD 40,000.

Currently it is too early to spread the existence of the H&S pattern as price action analysis cannot be determined by a single indicator, but it is still a notable signal.

$ BTC S / R update according to volume profile:
$ 47,000 has been good support lately, but if we break it our next strong support is at $ 40,000.
On the other hand, if we manage to break the $ 50.6,000 resistance, the next one will be at $ 56,000.
Let’s see which setup will be played out! pic.twitter.com/hcmvmUbVln

– Whale map (@whale_map) December 11, 2021

Data from the on-chain analytics platform Whalemap also identifies the $ 40,000 level as an area to watch closely. In a recent interview, Whalemap co-founder Andy Bohutsky said:

“Basically, if Bitcoin closes the daily candle below the support described above, it will move down. The next level below that is around $ 40,000. ”

While Bitcoin’s current price action is not giving confidence to traders who bought at higher levels in hopes of a target of $ 74,000 to $ 80,000 in December, analyst Mohit Sorout points out that periods of negative borrowing rates are demonstrable are good time to buy.

There are no downsides to this asset$ btc pic.twitter.com/Vr7mPFOvxU

– Mohit Sorout (@singhsoro) December 11, 2021

In the daily timeframe, both the MACD and RSI show that BTC is oversold so an accumulation phase could soon follow.

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