Digital Currency February 2022: Expect Bitcoin to Repeat Past Scenario (Part 1)

Analyze and identify trends of the top digital currencies in terms of capitalization and are of interest to many investors. The analysis below can be used for both short-term and long-term reference purposes.

BTC – Expects the past scenario to repeat itself

With an investment start at the end of 2020, it is possible to see the price of Bitcoin (Bitcoin) moves fairly synchronously with the Fibonacci time zone. Special:

The 1st Fibonacci time zone line coincides with the April 2021 old high. price Bitcoin rose from USD 11,000 to over VND 60,000 US dollars one this increase.

The 2nd line of the Fibonacci time zone coincides with the October 2021 old high. price Bitcoin from 32,000 U.S. dollar more than 65,000 won U.S. dollar.

After each peak, the price fell sharply. The move from late 2021 to early 2022 is very similar to the previous two cuts. Therefore, the author expects the recovery in 2022 to be no less than the two gains in 2021.

With this reasoning, we get the following calculation:

Price target = 35,000 + 30,000 = 65,000 U.S. dollar

The time fall point coincides with the 3rd line of the Fibonacci time zone (corresponds to the time of June 2022). After this point Bitcoin could fall into a lull that will last until nearly 2023 before bouncing back.

Source: TradingView and Bitstamp

The above judgment will be reasonable if in the near future Bitcoin stayed above 40k-42k (corresponds to November 2021 low and many previous highs).

If this zone is breached, the probability of returning to old bottom in July 2021 (corresponding to the 28,000-30,000 range) is very high.

Source: TradingView and Bitstamp

ETH – The uptrend is back

Price is constantly making new highs and new higher lows. In the longer term, Ethereum (ETH) price has been making new highs and new higher lows (higher high and higher low) from early 2021 until now. This shows that the uptrend is still there.

However, after reaching point D of the ABCD pattern (after the harmonic wave), the correction took place. This further underscores the role of the long-term trendline. This line has a low slope and a long survival time, so the ability to hold out is high.

During the correction period from late 2021 to early 2022, this level provided very good price support. The writer expects ETH to return to the upside after successfully testing this support level.

Source: TradingView and Bitstamp

Using the GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) tool, the author noted that after a period of time below the long-term MAR band (red), the short-term MAR band (green) will be retested and may exceed this area in the near future .

If the short-term band can break above the long-term band and ETH price can break out of these bands completely, then the previous downtrend will be completely reversed and the growth of this coin will be high. However, for now, the long-term MAR band is still a very strong resistance for ETH.

Source: TradingView and Bitstamp

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