Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis – Is BTC Downtrend Or Not? | Plan BTC This Week April 11, 2022
The weekly candle closed with quite a strong selling volume, BTC did not reach $50,000 – $52,000 as we expected, but only reached $48,200 and turned to with the bears had priority. Prices are 15% off from nearest peak. Besides, the weekly candle closed a red candle with full selling force and formed an Evening star reversal candlestick pattern, a sign of a downtrend. However, to determine if the next trend is bearish or not, we need to consider adding more data such as on-chain data, whales signals and charts. First, let’s go to on-chain data to see what information it gives us.
On-Chain Data
In the past 24 hours , 62,911 traders were liquidated, the total liquidations came in at $154.66 million the largest single liquidation order happened on Bybit – BTCUSDT value $1.61M. However, if we look into the past, this number is insignificant. So ahead we still have kill long-short orders.
Exchange Futures Open Interest
Overall, open interest was down from 28.3B on November 7 to 19.4B on April 11. Currently, the number of open interest on Binance is the highest in the market at $4.8B– accounting for 25% of the total open interest. From November until now, open interest has taken place in a sideways trend and has increased slightly, which clearly shows the confusion of BTC holders because now the main trend is still not clearly defined.
Bitcoin: Exchange Netflow (Total) – All Exchanges
Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC
The amount of BTC in the past days has been put on the exchange continuously. But there is a large amount of BTC withdrawn from the exchange. Showing the whales, the institutions are constantly pooling when the BTC price is low.
Although the price of BTC continued to down, the market was not stable, but the number of BTC wallet >1000 BTC continued to increase sharply and suddenly. With the index showing that the whales continue to buy BTC when the price drops, they have an uptrend plan to do this.
Binary Coin Day Destroyed (B-CDD)
Source: View Live Chart
This analysis is our personal opinion based on the combined 30-day and 7-day moving averages from B-CDD’s data. We can get an overview of the periods with the movement of old coins from long-term holders.
- 30D MA is the black line
- 7D MA is the grey line
If 30DMA and 7DMA did break through and stay above 0.75: The bull market was long-term and strong (greed). The main distribution of old coins began and was maintained. If 30DMA was between 0.43 – 0.75, and the 7DMA was above 0.85, the long-term holders would redistribute or capitulate. There were short or medium-term price increases during this period. If 30DMA and 7DMA stayed below 0.43, the market was bearish, accumulating and re-accumulating for a long time where fear and doubt have taken turns. Currently, B-CDD now still is below 0.43 the market was bearish.
Technical Analysis
The Weekly candle closing with a reversal candelstick pattern: Evening star and BTC closing below MA 34 is tend to downtrend. The nearest support and resistance levels are:
- Resistance: $44,000
- Support: $38,000
In the long term, the price is running in an uptrend channel, but in the short term, the price is in a downtrend supported by the diagonal trend line. Range: $38,000 – $44,000.
Looking the daily chart, BTC had failed when retesting confluence EMA 34, 89. Selling volume priority. Both RSI and MACD are in the negative zone. All are in favor of the downtrend.
Like our old plan, the market will have a familiar cycle of pumping lightly, then dumping strongly make a new bottom and the last step of a strong pump starts a new cycle. The process of lightly pumping goods has been completed, now it’s time to dump strongly remove weak hands, big hands to collect. Why do you say that? We can clearly see that the amount of BTC put on the floor is from a few small sharks, some short-term players are discharging. Or of some hands making market prices that are just trying to manipulate.
The price drop makes the market depressed and panicky to continue to collect the best cheap price before strongly pumping into the new cycle. This we saw last year in June-July last year, it sideway the $30,000-$36,000 zone for a long time just to show the downtrend trend, let the weak hand continue to sell and they gathered as much as possible. This is signs of whales manipulating the market to buy cheap, not a sign of a winter downtrend.
Signal: Sell Priority.
If you have any questions, comments, suggestions, or ideas about the project, please email ventures@coincu.com.
DISCLAIMER: The Information on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
Alan
Coincu Ventures
Author
The weekly candle closed with quite a strong selling volume, BTC did not reach $50,000 – $52,000 as we expected, but only reached $48,200 and turned to with the bears had priority. Prices are 15% off from nearest peak. Besides, the weekly candle closed a red candle with full selling force and formed an Evening star reversal candlestick pattern, a sign of a downtrend. However, to determine if the next trend is bearish or not, we need to consider adding more data such as on-chain data, whales signals and charts. First, let’s go to on-chain data to see what information it gives us.
On-Chain Data
In the past 24 hours , 62,911 traders were liquidated, the total liquidations came in at $154.66 million the largest single liquidation order happened on Bybit – BTCUSDT value $1.61M. However, if we look into the past, this number is insignificant. So ahead we still have kill long-short orders.
Exchange Futures Open Interest
Overall, open interest was down from 28.3B on November 7 to 19.4B on April 11. Currently, the number of open interest on Binance is the highest in the market at $4.8B– accounting for 25% of the total open interest. From November until now, open interest has taken place in a sideways trend and has increased slightly, which clearly shows the confusion of BTC holders because now the main trend is still not clearly defined.
Bitcoin: Exchange Netflow (Total) – All Exchanges
Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC
The amount of BTC in the past days has been put on the exchange continuously. But there is a large amount of BTC withdrawn from the exchange. Showing the whales, the institutions are constantly pooling when the BTC price is low.
Although the price of BTC continued to down, the market was not stable, but the number of BTC wallet >1000 BTC continued to increase sharply and suddenly. With the index showing that the whales continue to buy BTC when the price drops, they have an uptrend plan to do this.
Binary Coin Day Destroyed (B-CDD)
Source: View Live Chart
This analysis is our personal opinion based on the combined 30-day and 7-day moving averages from B-CDD’s data. We can get an overview of the periods with the movement of old coins from long-term holders.
- 30D MA is the black line
- 7D MA is the grey line
If 30DMA and 7DMA did break through and stay above 0.75: The bull market was long-term and strong (greed). The main distribution of old coins began and was maintained. If 30DMA was between 0.43 – 0.75, and the 7DMA was above 0.85, the long-term holders would redistribute or capitulate. There were short or medium-term price increases during this period. If 30DMA and 7DMA stayed below 0.43, the market was bearish, accumulating and re-accumulating for a long time where fear and doubt have taken turns. Currently, B-CDD now still is below 0.43 the market was bearish.
Technical Analysis
The Weekly candle closing with a reversal candelstick pattern: Evening star and BTC closing below MA 34 is tend to downtrend. The nearest support and resistance levels are:
- Resistance: $44,000
- Support: $38,000
In the long term, the price is running in an uptrend channel, but in the short term, the price is in a downtrend supported by the diagonal trend line. Range: $38,000 – $44,000.
Looking the daily chart, BTC had failed when retesting confluence EMA 34, 89. Selling volume priority. Both RSI and MACD are in the negative zone. All are in favor of the downtrend.
Like our old plan, the market will have a familiar cycle of pumping lightly, then dumping strongly make a new bottom and the last step of a strong pump starts a new cycle. The process of lightly pumping goods has been completed, now it’s time to dump strongly remove weak hands, big hands to collect. Why do you say that? We can clearly see that the amount of BTC put on the floor is from a few small sharks, some short-term players are discharging. Or of some hands making market prices that are just trying to manipulate.
The price drop makes the market depressed and panicky to continue to collect the best cheap price before strongly pumping into the new cycle. This we saw last year in June-July last year, it sideway the $30,000-$36,000 zone for a long time just to show the downtrend trend, let the weak hand continue to sell and they gathered as much as possible. This is signs of whales manipulating the market to buy cheap, not a sign of a winter downtrend.
Signal: Sell Priority.
If you have any questions, comments, suggestions, or ideas about the project, please email ventures@coincu.com.
DISCLAIMER: The Information on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
Alan
Coincu Ventures
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