The past few days have been pretty ominous for most altcoins. Litecoin, the 15th largest cryptocurrency by market, is no exception. After trading above $ 230 for a reasonable period last week, LTC price slipped back to $ 162 on September 7th.

Fascinated by fake news

Yesterday, several major mainstream news outlets reported that retail giant Walmart has partnered with Litecoin. However, a Walmart spokesperson corrects that the untrue press release caused the price of LTC to run a free bullet train – up from $ 173 before the fake news to nearly $ 240 and then down to $ 171.

1H LTC / USDT chart. Source: TradingView

Litecoin creator Charlie Lee told the Wall Street Journal that the Litecoin Foundation’s social media manager believed the news of Walmart’s adoption of the altcoin was real:

“It was wrong to retweet it. We quickly deleted it shortly afterwards. But the damage has already been done. “

The nonprofit has also made it clear that it has not partnered with Walmart.

ETF potential

Although slight turbulence stalled LTC, smart contracts and the NFT craze clearly fueled optimism and propped up the LTC price. However, there is another key factor that has kept the LTC community fundamentally optimistic.

According to one report Recently, Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust (LTCN) took a step closer to its ETF. A report by Forbes found that LTCN, along with Bitcoin and Ethereum Trusts, has become an SEC reporting firm and is now regulated much like any other publicly traded company.

The move could strengthen Grayscale’s relationship with the regulator as the fund turns into an ETF. ETF status is sure to instill confidence in the broader retail market. At this point, the ability to reach investors who intend to buy shares in the Fund will increase.

However, the current ETF environment in the US cannot be overlooked as the SEC has filed at least dozen of Bitcoin ETF proposals, but none have been approved to date. Although SEC chairman Gary Gensler recently made his support for an ETF clear, a timetable has not yet been revealed.

In the event that Bitcoin ETFs are still outstanding, the possibility of an LTC ETF is rather unlikely.

In fact, Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust has not done well so far. The market valuation has collapsed in the last few months. As can be seen from the attached chart, LTCN stock was trading at around $ 400 in May. However, it is currently at just $ 17.2 and is down 50%.

In fact, the fund has given investors a -20% return since inception. This number is quite contrasting when compared to + 30.671% from GBTC and + 327.6% from ETHE.

Source: grayscale

Well, even if the dream does come true, the ETF is approved and eventually launched, it is not certain that it will have a positive effect on the price of LTC as negative / reducing returns rarely attract investors. Should the situation worsen in the coming days, market participants will prefer to invest directly in Litecoin rather than through another alternative investment vehicle.

Current status of Litecoin

Given the current state, it looks like LTC could go either way. However, it should be noted that its volatility has increased noticeably from the 40-80% frame to the 80-120% frame.

The coin’s liveliness indicator shows a clear trend. This figure has decreased so far. This is a ratio between the number of days a coin is destroyed and the number of days a coin is created, which helps in analyzing the broader market trend.

Typically, liveliness sees an increase when a long-term HODL liquidates a position and a decrease when he or HODL accumulates. According to Glassnode’s chart, it is clear that HODLing behavior is dominating the market and is generally a healthy sign.

Source: Glassnode

Additionally, the current status of SOPR suggests that sellers can end their surrender sooner, which means Litecoin is well prepared to welcome new entrants in the market.

Based on the status of the above indicators and the NFT story, it can be assumed that the LTC price will continue to recover in the coming days. Altcoin prices are likely to remain impervious to the ETF euphoria for the time being, however.

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Annie

Bitcoin magazine

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