The loss of $ 30,000 in support on June 22nd sparked large sell-offs. Even after recovering to $ 33,000, the market still needs to find stable foundations. From a macro point of view, current market events are strangely similar to the 2017 macro highs. This is especially true for the long term (LTH) and short term (STH) offerings.

WOMENThe offer is held by long-term and short-term holders are in profit / loss | source: Glass knot

The graph above shows macro peaks in 2017 and 2021. As shown, the “HODL peak” period in both cycles was mainly driven by the LTH supply. Once this level has been reached, the macro-distribution phase takes place, in which BTC is shifted from LTH to STH.

This brought the BTC price to a high, at which point LTH stopped spending and started accumulating again even though the coins were in an unrealized loss state. After peaking at $ 64,000, LTH owns another 5.25% of the circulating supply after renewed accumulation. Of this, 1.5% are unrealized losses at the time this article was written.

LTH continues to hold the coin even though the price approaches the cost base. This seems to reflect the optimism and confidence of long-time players in the industry. In addition, this is also true when you consider the decline in spending on older coins.

In fact, the data shows that spending on older coins (> 1 year) fell significantly after the May sell-off.

source: Glass knot

This underscores the need for low on-chain payments, but also confirms investors’ long-term confidence in the future of Bitcoin.

Interestingly, the movements in the market are mostly happening on newer coins (<1 year, excluding <1 day). In the past few months, newer coins have made up more than 45% of all transactions. This may be because new entrants sell during the buyback phase.

The market is experiencing volatility as people who have bought in the past 6 months spend their coins and suffer losses. Traders are likely to be looking for immovable coins held by “older” traders. This could be a sign that they believe in holding Bitcoin

Good news for Bitcoin

At the time of writing, the on-chain metrics look awkward for BTC. In fact, the total volume of large trades – a testament to the interest shown by institutional investors – has declined significantly in recent days. As shown in the graphic below, the volume is at the level of last December.

Large trading volume (USD) | source: IntoTheBlock

According to IntoTheBock data, the aggregate value of these large deals is 61.7% below their recent highs in early February this year.

The weakened state of on-chain activity is also reflected in the decline in the number of daily active addresses. The index hit its lows in December 2020. Notably, the number of active addresses has dropped 26% in the past 7 days to an average of 787,000, after peaking between March and April this year.

However, following China’s action, there are a number of issues that Bitcoin investors need to be concerned about. The world’s largest BTC fund provider Grayscale is currently regularly selling shares in its most popular fund – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). With the 140,000 BTC unlocking pending, we could see the value of large transactions drop even further.

Unlock Grayscale Bitcoin Trust | Source: Twitter

Despite the stagnation in the Bitcoin market, the Canadian Purpose Bitcoin ETF has benefited significantly from the decline. Since May 15, an average of 86.15 BTC has flowed into the fund every day. One tweet The latest highlights from Glassnode:

“The Purpose ETF currently holds 21,114 BTC.”

Canadian Purpose Bitcoin ETF stocks | source: Glass knot

In search of diversification, investors (especially institutional investors) are starting to look for ETFs as a viable investment option. Canada is one of the very few countries that has approved a Bitcoin ETF. However, the situation in the US now appears to be exactly the opposite.

Notably, in the past two weeks, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed decisions on two of its most famous filings: VanEck and Valkyrie ETFs.

As is well known, the most valuable cryptocurrency on the market has changed dramatically in the past two months. Its value has almost halved in the period mentioned above. With the increasing adoption of ETFs in the market, BTC is definitely being cheered at this point.

You can see the Bitcoin price here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Minh Anh

According to AZCoin News

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