Key Points:
- Solana ETF approval probability for 2025 is currently around 84-85%.
- The SEC has recognized Grayscale’s spot Solana ETF application.
- Increased interest in Solana ETFs comes from major financial issuers.
As of the latest analysis on Polymarket, there is an 84% chance of a Solana ETF being approved within the year. This progression reflects significant optimism among investors and market participants.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Grayscale’s application for a spot Solana ETF, marking a substantial step forward. Regulatory challenges remain, especially with Solana’s classification as a security.
Solana ETF Approval Chances Surge from 45% to 85%
According to Polymarket, a prediction market platform, the estimated probability of approval stands at 84-85%, reflecting a notable increase from earlier estimates of 45%.
Recently, the launch of the TRUMP meme coin on its blockchain in January 2025 increased network activity, driving up transaction fees paid in SOL. The thereof action contributed to Solana reaching an all-time high of $294 that month.
Additionally, stablecoin supply on Solana surged by 112% in January to $11.1 billion, with a 73.6% increase following the TRUMP coin’s debut on January 18.
After peaking above $280, SOL corrected and stabilized in the $230-$240 range. As of February 7, 2025, SOL is trading between $196.71 and $196.99, with recent fluctuations between $189.76 and $197.04.
Analysts, including James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have characterized this acknowledgement as a substantial development in the trajectory toward potential approval. Several major financial issuers are vying for this approval, demonstrating a heightened interest in the market.
Solana ETF Approval Takes 240-260 Review Days
The recent positive market predictions surrounding a potential Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) have shifted focus to developments in the United States. Notably, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Grayscale’s application for a spot Solana ETF, marking the first time the agency has taken this step.
However, the SEC’s classification of Solana’s native cryptocurrency, SOL, as a security presents challenges for the approval of the ETF. This classification typically necessitates a more rigorous regulatory scrutiny process.
Additionally, the SEC’s standard review period for ETF applications averages between 240 to 260 days, which contributes to the ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
VanEck Predicts Solana Could Hit $520 by 2025’s End
VanEck has released a forecast suggesting that the price of Solana could rise to $520 by the end of 2025. The prediction is attributed to an expected increase in the US M2 money supply and anticipated growth in the smart contract platform (SCP) market. “We forecast Solana’s market share in the SCP sector to rise from 15% to 22%, supported by its developer dominance,” the report stated.
Given a circulating supply of 486 million tokens, this increase in market share could position Solana’s market value at approximately $250 billion.
The overall SCP market is projected to expand by 43%, reaching around $1.1 trillion. These factors collectively indicate that Solana is poised for substantial price appreciation in the coming years.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
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