Key Points:
- Steve’s theory of Bitcoin returns diminishing by 5.3x questioned.
- To reach $100,000, Bitcoin needs to diminish by 3.84x, and $77,000 target might break Fibonacci extensions.
Steve’s theory of Bitcoin returns diminishing by 5.3x questioned. Cycle tops’ returns: 5.34x, 4.96x, & 5.63x with an average of 5.31x. Cycle top prices range from $73,522 to $81,675. To reach $100,000, Bitcoin needs to diminish by 3.84x. ETFs may make a difference.
Steve’s theory about Bitcoin returns diminishing by 5.3x from bottom to top each cycle has been making waves in the cryptocurrency community. According to the theory reported by CryptoCon, the next cycle top will be around $77,000.
To find out, they measured returns from cycle bottoms to tops on the daily timeframe as precisely as possible. The returns from cycle tops to bottoms were not 5.3, but rather 5.34x, 4.96x, and 5.63x. However, the average of these numbers is 5.31, which adds merit to Steve’s theory.
Still, it only gives us a range. The real numbers so far from lowest to highest are as follows:
| Cycle Top | Price |
|---|---|
| Lowest | $73,522 |
| Average | $77,122 |
| Highest | $81,675 |
Unfortunately, none of these numbers are ones that people want to hear. To reach a slightly more optimistic target of $100,000, Bitcoin would need to set in a drastically lower diminishing return rate to reach that target this cycle, at 3.84x diminish.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has never not hit a Fibonacci extension level at a cycle top. If $77,000 is the target, this would break that. The cycles hit these Fibonacci extensions: 58.764, 19.764, and 3.618. The lowest Fibonacci extension for this cycle measured from weekly candle bodies is 1.618. This would mean a price of $104,000, which takes a 3.7x diminish from the last cycle.
Many believe that ETFs will bring the power it takes to break models and numbers. Despite the numbers, Bitcoin remains an exciting investment option, and it will be interesting to see how it performs in the future.
DISCLAIMER: The Information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
