Bitcoin managed to beat last week’s local high to get closer to final resistance before hitting an all-time high (ATH) of $ 64,500.
The fundamentals laid the foundation for the final Q4 results, which analysts are now confidently comparing to the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.
Separated from macro market movements and the US dollar, Bitcoin is increasingly looking like a gold alternative, as investors want it – while altcoins are losing the limelight.
However, at the beginning of the second week of October, let’s take a look at what could happen to Bitcoin price action in the coming days.
Altcoins are lagging behind the “Bitcoin season”
Things look better when the week starts for Bitcoin traders, last week’s four-month high is back and has been beaten.
Aside from one curious anomaly on the Bitstamp exchange, which temporarily fell to $ 51,000, a quiet weekend preserved previous gains.
Bitcoin price actions now seemingly preparing to attack the ultimate resistance below the ATH of $ 64,500 are pleasing to market participants.
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 11, 2021
“Still support this scenario from Bitcoin.”
However, there is another aspect behind Bitcoin’s strength that could continue to maintain its bullish momentum in the short term.
Altcoins are underperforming, leading to predictions of an earlier “bitcoin season” than some types of “altcoin season” come later, possibly until 2022.
Every 1% = roughly 10% decrease from the BTC ratios
Volatile week in advance with ETF not conductive for high contaminated sites
– Pentoshi won’t condemn you. hates dms. DMs are scams (@ Pentosh1) October 10, 2021
Altcoins are bleeding, most have dropped 10-20% in the Bitcoin pair since that post
Every 1% = about 10% decrease from the Bitcoin price
The past week has been volatile with ETFs with no high altcoin exposure
Remember that long altcoins are the same as short bitcoins. “
The situation is particularly clear with Ether, which is currently at its lowest level since the beginning of August compared to Bitcoin, reports analyst Michaël van de Poppe summary today:
“ETH / BTC collapsed while Bitcoin consolidated. I assume that Bitcoin will continue while Altcoins have not yet caught up. “
But Van de Poppe added Controversial cycle high for ETH / USD up to $ 20,000, with a timeframe of Q1 next year.
“You are here”
It takes a lot to please bitcoiners on the bitcoin price action.
Last week, Bitcoin rose $ 3,000 in minutes, $ 5,000 in an hour, and hit a 4-month high, but in the days that followed, commentators complained it was “boring”.
The weight of expectations for Bitcoin can be seen in 2021, a year after the third halving and thus the deadline for the halving summit.
How much Bitcoin can achieve is controversial, and while some have suggested that $ 200,000 or even $ 300,000 is “programmed”, others have lost confidence, arguing that this cycle is not the same as the two previous cycles.
However, if we compare the years after the halving, there seems to be consensus that the main surge leading to the blow-off top for Bitcoin has not yet started.
For example the September drop below $ 40,000 and repeated similar events in 2013 and 2017. These events occurred just before the launch and acted as a top bear trap.
– TechDev (@ TechDev_52) October 9, 2021
The price development in 2021 is also very similar to 2017.
All of these results come from analyst TechDev, with a graph showing that this year’s high was much higher than the previous one. He argues that the six-figure height is technically logically justified
Bitcoin trading volume up to $ 31 billion in one day
Much attention was paid to the network fundamentals of Bitcoin during the 2020-2021 bull run, but much more is to come.
Given the difficulty with hashrate and mining, both recovering and approaching ATH, new data shows that other aspects of Bitcoin are setting records of their own.
This week is all about network capacity and scalability – all on-chain, even before the Lightning Network was launched.
As Bitcoin magazine Bitcoin reportedly hit over $ 30 billion in billing value in a single day last week, marking a new ATH.
Impressive transaction volumes are associated with constant costs – Bitcoin transaction fees remain low.
The role of GBTC
The countdown to a decision on a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is still exciting this week, but has a permit already “priced in”?
While the US regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has postponed the deadline for deciding the fate of Bitcoin ETF proposals on the spot market to November, there will be an announcement this month. “Yes” or “no.” “For ETF products that are hedged by futures contracts.
Futures-backed ETFs have generated excitement and criticism, while current institutional investors, particularly the market heavyweight Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), are questioning the fate of Bitcoin instruments.
Given the rapid rise in the price of Bitcoin, GBTC continues to trade at a significant discount in the spot market, and this trend has intensified in recent weeks.
GBTC premium chart | Source: Bybt
As ETFs keep growing, more and more capital will pour into them, analysts say, before Grayscale converts its own funds into ETFs.
For macro analyst Lyn Alden, the chance that “gray scale premium” will return to the neutral area looks slim.
“I doubt it, but it’s not impossible if there is a big bitcoin rally and no ETF at this point,” she said. answer to the question in a social media discussion over the weekend.
Bitcoin’s performance outperformed the base case I wrote about it in 2020, in part due to the GBTC’s neutral arbitrage trading, which generated temporary additional demand.
– Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) October 9, 2021
“Bitcoin’s performance has surpassed the last case I wrote about it in 2020, in part due to GBTC’s neutral arbitrage trading which has created temporary additional demand.
In my opinion, it’s back on a more sustainable path now, fueled by the accumulation of owners. Looks good, let’s see. “
Alden updated her research from last year highlighting GBTC’s role in Bitcoin’s price movement. She said the relative lack of this phenomenon has a positive impact on the sustainability of Bitcoin price developments.
For those concerned that a return to 4 month highs has been accompanied by market instability, reconsider.
Bitcoin’s recent gains came from continued growth, according to the sentiment meter on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
This is contrary to the norm – movements to the highs and especially near the ATH values tend to indicate that the index has reached “extreme greed”. This again shows an unsustainable, volatile market that triggers a price correction.
So far, the Fear & Greed Index measures just under 57,000 US dollars, but only 71/100 – “greedy”, not “extreme greed” and still far from its high of 95/100.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index | Source: alternative.me
However, October brought major changes in sentiment. For example, on September 30, just two weeks ago, the index was 20/100 – “extreme fear”.
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According to Cointelegraph