Bitcoin Technical Analysis June 30th

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen since its June 22nd rally. So far, it has hit a local high of $ 36,623 on June 29th.

However, BTC was unable to regain some key resistance levels. In addition, technical indicators do not support bullish reversals.

Bitcoin recovery

BTC rebounded significantly in the week of June 21-28, hitting a low of $ 28,805 and creating a long wick underneath (green). It continued to hit a closing price above the $ 32,600 horizontal support area. This area is important as BTC has not managed to close below this zone since the start of the year, despite several violations.

The close of the week produced a hammer candle that is often viewed as a bullish sign.

Despite closing above the horizontal support, the technical indicators are still falling. The MACD is falling and in the negative area the RSI has fallen below 50 and the stochastic oscillator has created a bearish cross (red symbols).

Hence, the profit is not enough to confirm the reversal.

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Weekly BTC / USDT Chart | Source: TradingView

BTC is still trading in a range

The daily chart offers a slightly mixed outlook. BTC appears to be trading in a range between $ 31,400 and $ 40,550. This has been the case since its first decline on May 19th. Price bounced off support area on June 22nd and has since moved up.

On the other hand, the upward trend is initiated by a very clear bullish divergence in the signal lines of the MACD, RSI and the stochastic oscillator.

However, none of these three indicators are showing bullish results. The MACD signal line is still in negative territory, the RSI is below 50 and the stochastic oscillator has created a bearish cross.

Despite being in the middle of the range, BTC plummeted today and is in the process of creating a bearish engulfing candle. This can confirm that the short term rally is over and the price will fall back towards the range support.

1625039576 814 Bitcoin Technical Analysis June 30th

BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

Count waves

The number of long-term waves is not yet entirely clear.

Although Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since April 14th, it is still uncertain whether the downtrend on April 22nd.

While the former will show that a bottom has been hit, the latter suggests that the price could continue to fall to $ 23,600 and possibly $ 19,800.

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BTC / USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

If you take a closer look at the movement, then it supports the bearish scenario.

The sustained uptrend looks like an ABC correction structure (red). There are two main reasons for this:

  • The overlap between upward movement and rejection (red line).
  • This move ends at a confluence of the 0.618 fib retracement resistance (black) and the 1: 1 target of the A: C waves (red).

Hence, it is more likely that BTC has not yet hit its lowest point and another price drop will follow.

1625039579 564 Bitcoin Technical Analysis June 30th

BTC / USDT 6-hour chart | Source: TradingView

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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