According to Todd Rosenbluth, Senior Director of ETFs and Investment Fund Research at research firm CFRA, crypto-asset investors may have to wait longer for an exchange-traded futures product, the bitcoin hybrid.
Speaking on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on October 12, Rosenbluth stated that the Bitcoin futures product will likely be the first crypto ETF to receive approval, but warned that the current cloud is regulated by the situation -Availability can lead to further delays.
There are more than 20 exchange-traded products based on crypto assets pending approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the regulator has not yet approved any of them and instead cut them many times.
The researcher suggested that regulators could wait for all of these products to achieve their goals so that they could be approved at the same time to avoid a “first mover advantage” before adding:
“It is possible – we even consider it likely – that we will see a shift in the Bitcoin futures ETF until 2022, until the regulatory environment is clearer.”
Van Eck Associates CEO Jan van Eck commented that, besides the potential for excess funds, the SEC’s primary concern is the discrepancy between the actual Bitcoin price and the futures price.
When there is a bitcoin rally, futures strategies can perform up to 20% a year worse, he said, before adding that “the SEC wants some insight into the underlying bitcoin markets.”
Van Eck also suggested that the regulator needs more control over crypto trading, which it appears to be trying to do with recent threats to Coinbase and the exchange’s stablecoin loan product. Other popular trading platforms like Robinhood are regulated and registered as broker-dealers.
Related: Are whales ahead of Bitcoin futures ETF approval?
Any speculation about a possible delay could affect Bitcoin price as analysts have suggested that large investors could buy BTC in anticipation of ETF approval this month. The asset is up 37.5% in the past two weeks, hitting a local high of $ 58,000 on October 12, but further regulatory delays could disrupt current market momentum.
Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas remains confident that the likelihood of an ETF getting approved this month is 75%.
Earlier this month, the SEC extended the terms of four BTC ETFs – Global X Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin Futures Fund, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, and Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF – by 45 days.
In September, Van Eck’s physically-backed Bitcoin ETF was postponed for the second time this year, with the SEC setting the decision date at November 14th.