The ETC market has not seen an upward trend for a long time. Although the “bullish” narrative is gaining traction in the broader market, the altcoin continues to move south on the chart.

Lots of incidents

This downward trend is certainly nothing new. However, the rapid pace of development is an amazing and unthinkable turn to the monotonous ETC trend.

If you look at the chart below, this index skyrocketed in October and reached a high for the year. However, it has declined as fast as it rose in the same month and is pretty close to the local low at press time.

Development activity (purple) | The source: mood

Additionally, amid the hype surrounding Grayscale’s exchange traded funds (ETF), ETC Trust offered the largest discount on its net worth of any of the company’s investment products. At the time of going to press, ETC stock is trading at less than half the spot value of ETC. Ethereum Classic Trust closed at just $ 19.3 on Friday, according to data from Grayscale.

At this point, if you divide the $ 652 million ETC the Trust owns by the nearly 14 million shares outstanding, you get $ 46.64 per share. In other words, investors are exposed to ETC for around $ 0.4 per $ 1.

The source: Grayscale

Time to fill your pocket?

The simple answer is no.

First, buying at ETC Trust does not mean that investors will be able to withdraw the price of the cryptocurrency. Even amateur investors who believe they can get a stock at a bargain price greater than 50% have no guarantee that the discount will be less if they decide to sell it.

At this point, any savvy investor familiar with the entire ecosystem will immediately refuse to participate in the ETC market. For the uninitiated, however, ETC is like a golden duck thanks to previous unexpected rallies.

In fact, market participants who bought the token during the May peak are still clinging to it in the hope that history will repeat itself.

Aside from the market price of the stock, there is a lot of unpredictability in the primary valuation of ETCs. With the current downtrend, even the local September 6 high of $ 77 seems pretty far-fetched right now.

Worse, this altcoin has been trading below its moving averages for the past few days – not a good sign. In essence, it doesn’t look like ETC could get any closer to the ATH at $ 180 anytime soon.

4 Hour ETC Price Chart | Source: TradingView

Cause of damage

Even on-chain indicators are showing no signs of a trend reversal at the time of writing.

For example, the NVT has been falling steadily so far, which means that the network value of Ethereum Classic cannot keep up with the increasing network usage. This should represent a bearish mood.

Adapted NVT from ETC | The source: Messari

In the past, ETC and some altcoins like XRP seem to be in pretty much the same position, with the ability to hit the previous ATH almost impossible. For now, however, XRP is turning the tide.

On the other hand, the success of XRP and other altcoins doesn’t necessarily mean that ETC will produce something similar. ETC has a completely different situation. Given the current price movements and metrics, it is highly unlikely that this cryptocurrency will recover and rebound anytime soon.

Hence, investors may consider redirecting money into better performing assets rather than just waiting for the ETC to rise.

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