US stocks wobble on Omicron, Bitcoin challenges $ 60,000 resistance
After trading to an intraday high of $ 59,041, Bitcoin went down more than 4% to a local low of $ 56,470 in the day before rebounding slightly to current levels of around $ 57,000.
BTC / USD 1h candlestick chart. Source: TradingView
Not only did Bitcoin collapse, the U.S. stock market plummeted in Wednesday’s trading session (December 1st) after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) saw a case of Covid-19 due to the first Omicron mutation had confirmed in this country. Crude oil prices also fell after the slump in November.
This session continued to witness high volatility in the indices. Since the Omicron strain was discovered in South Africa, the market has trembled for four consecutive trading sessions.
Despite rising as much as 520 points during the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session with a loss of 461.88 points, or a decline of 1.34%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.2% to 4,513.04 points, marking the first drop below the 50-day average since October 13th. The Nasdaa index lost 1.8% to 15,254.05 points, although it had previously risen 1.8%.
The sacred Bitcoin, which is resistant to $ 60,000
For analyst Michaël van de Poppe, there is hope that Bitcoin will challenge the USD 60,000 resistance level.
Did you buy the $ 56K flip-on? #Bitcoin?
I want to attack the highs at $ 60,000 here. pic.twitter.com/nyx2XvE8Sw
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 1, 2021
The area at and above $ 60,000 now represents resistance that must be overcome and held to ensure a bullish continuation.
Recent events seem to make this scenario less likely in the short term as resistance has increased and support at lower levels has disappeared.
However, as with the $ 30,000 floor at the beginning of the year, there is still hope that $ 50,000 will continue to form a solid defense.
The source: Twitter
The end of November saw the first failure of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow pricing model by analyst PlanB, which forecast a month-end closing at $ 98,000.
BTC investors aren’t losing?
At the beginning of December, investors and analysts are closely monitoring the movements of the largest cryptocurrency to gauge the direction of the market.
$ 53,000 has been an important level since March as it acts as both support and resistance. It has been tested many times and has sometimes changed the price movement of BTC at the macro level. Hence, Bitcoin’s rebound from this level during the recent retest is a good sign for investors as November price action caused investors significant losses equivalent to a March sell-off.
Real profit / loss of Bitcoin | Source: Glassnode
However, considering the supply situation for both short-term (STH) and long-term (LTH) holders, the market is actually in a healthier position than it was in September, when Bitcoin fell nearly 23% in two weeks.
Currently, of 18% of the supply held by STH, almost 50% is profitable. This means a profit increase of 60% compared to September.
Similarly, a timely LTH sell-off allowed them to take full advantage of the previous ATH price of $ 67.5,000. Currently, only 5.8% of LTH’s offering is loss-making.
Delivery of LTH profitable | Source: Glassnode
Even so, given the current market lows, the downside risk certainly remains. That could trigger LTH panic sales. However, for STH the most important point to watch is whether the market can hold the strike price at $ 53,000.
In particular, the on-chain cost base shows a successful retest of the actual price as an aid. As long as it lasts, the price will continue to move upwards.
On-chain cost base STH | Source: Glassnode
Crucially, the network lost more than 6% of its total active addresses that month. Confident investors stopped and HODLed Bitcoin. Your confidence will recover when the market becomes more optimistic.
Active bitcoin address | Source: Glassnode
As mentioned earlier, $ 53,000 is an important level and maintaining that level will be key to supporting an upcoming bull market.
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