Trader delays Bitcoin forecast of $ 100,000 but still expects a recession spike pattern in 2022
Optimistic traders who once predicted that Bitcoin would hit $ 100,000 by the end of 2021 are now only hoping that the top cryptocurrency can end the year at least above $ 50,000.
Data from TradingView shows that most of the profits made after the announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has declined. In the past 48 hours, the price has slid to a new low of $ 45,500 and it could fall even further.
BTC / USDT 4-Hour Price Chart | Source: TradingView
Here are some traders’ views on the current price trend and what to expect for the rest of 2021.
Bitcoin Consolidation May May Price Action
Analyst Rekt Capital compared the current price development with the consolidation from May to July.
BTC chart/USD 1 week | The source: Rect capital
“BTC is still consolidating within the 2 major EMAs of this bull market. As in May 2021 (yellow circle) ”.
If the same pattern occurs, BTC price could consolidate further and fall another 6 to 8 weeks before resuming the uptrend.
44,000 won dollar could be “bottom“
Also analyst Michael van de Poppe suspect the same for the coming months.
BTC price chart/USDT 4 hours | Source: Michael van de Poppe
Based on the chart, Van De Poppe sees the possibility of a return to the USD 44,000 area after falling to current levels, short-term consolidation and a continuation of the uptrend.
Change of mentality is not possible Base strength change
On the other hand, analyst TechDev has opinion more macro on the price action of BTC after each halving cycle.
BTC price in each cycle cut in half | Source: TechDev
TechDev points to two previous instances where BTC price experienced periods of intense volatility before a late-stage rally and a recession peak to a new all-time high.
“Although the mood has changed a lot in the last 2 weeks, Bitcoin is in the same macro position.”
Subsequent tweets and replies both suggest an overall bullish outlook for BTC over the long term. TechDev too emphasize added, “All eyes are on the retracement levels”.
What do on-chain indicators show?
Short-term SOPR holders (30-day MA) have positions above the neutral line for the past 5 months. Even in the autumn of September and November, investors were still profitable.
That changed this month, however, when the SOPR fell below 1 and has not yet recovered, suggesting that earnings sentiment has now turned to loss.
Short term SOPR holder | Source: Blockware Intelligence
The profit / loss ratio also falls below 1. This is relatively rare as the indicator mainly retests the neutral zone and has never fallen below it since last year, apart from the crash in May.
Win rate / hole the short-term holder| The source: Blockware intelligence
However, some metrics show slightly more optimistic signals. The supply shock rate continues to result in a bullish divergence, which means that Bitcoin is being shifted to companies with low past spending.
Therefore, at the moment, only the supply side is constrained, while demand continues to grow.
Supply shock rate at least Payment | The source: Blockware intelligence
So when this divergence shows up, a bullish price move back toward the key area of $ 53,000 could be observed.
Reaching this level would be a positive sign for Bitcoin as it is not just a short-term holder cost base (STH) but also a BTC market cap target of $ 1 trillion.
Cost base on the chain | The source: Blockware intelligence
Therefore, if the cost base is restored, the market could become bullish. On the contrary, a cautious attitude should be maintained.
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