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Can Bitcoin go up 50% during Christmas?
Bitcoin whales are back in the spotlight this week as big trades push coins to the exchanges.
Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant on December 24th shows that whales are increasing their presence as potential sellers.
Sell-off when Bitcoin price rises to $ 51,000
According to the Exchange Whale Ratio indicator from CryptoQuant, the ratio of large inflows to exchanges to total inflows is currently at a one-year high.
Inflows accelerated dramatically as BTC price rose to $ 51,000 on Thursday, suggesting that high-volume investors are likely planning to take profits at the higher end of the current range.
A CryptoQuant analyst warns:
“Better to watch until BTC cracks $ 51,000. Once the price breaks this level, the next major resistance will be around $ 56,800. ”
Valkyrie on the Stock Exchange and BTC Price Chart | Source: CryptoQuant
Despite the doubts, Bitcoin managed to hold higher highs on Friday – once a key factor that brought back bullish sentiment.
These days, whales are not new potential sellers. Earlier this month, large investors separated from smaller retailers when it came to buying behavior.
CryptoQuant and others confirm this is still happening, with the reverse market withdrawals reflecting a similar “cumulative high” as it did in September before the price broke to an all-time high of $ 69,000.
Miners are also HODLing block rewards and their total reserves are now at a 6 month high.
“Miners own more BTC than it did when the price was $ 69,000. In fact, they have added back all of the BTC that has been distributed since the $ 69,000 net drop, “noted Venturefounder staff.
Bitcoin Miner Reserve and BTC Price Chart | Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin could rise 50% this Christmas?
Bitcoin developed the necessary conditions for a point and figure (P&F) chart known as a bear trap. However, it also developed favorable conditions for a bearish catapult setup.
Bitcoin price movement on the USD 1,000 / 3-box reversal P&F chart has developed two patterns: bearish and bullish. Both represent transactions with a high positive lifetime ratio. But one trade has significantly more profit potential than the other.
There is a theoretical long chance for Bitcoin price with a buy stop at $ 51,000, a stop loss at $ 46,000, and a profit target of $ 75,800 – including the 78.6% Fib expansion. This trade has a risk / reward ratio of 4.96: 1. A three cell stop helps protect potential gains upon entry.
BTC / BTC $ 1,000 / 3 Box Reversal and Point Chart
The theoretical long trade setup will become invalid if the short entry below is activated before the long entry is met.
On the short side, there is a hypothetical sell opportunity with a sell stop of $ 45,000, a stop loss of $ 49,000, and a profit target of $ 35,000. The profit target is calculated from the vertical profit target method in the P&F analysis. This trade only represents a risk / reward ratio of 2.5: 1.
BTC $ 1000/3 plot and reverse chart
Despite the lower risk / reward ratio, the Bearish Catapult setup has a higher probability of success than the bear trap in the long run.
The hypothetical short setup becomes invalid when the long idea is activated.
You can see the Bitcoin price here.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.