Many factors work together to wreak havoc on XMR in the short term
XMR, the leading security coin in the market, has seen many ups and downs this year. The altcoin rebounded massively in the first few months of the year, hitting a 3-year high in May and beginning to decline shortly afterwards.
At the time of writing, the status of XMR is pretty similar to other altcoins that are struggling to protect themselves from corrections in the broader market. As Bitcoin extends its trading range, it is likely that many alts, especially XMR, will have to wait a little longer before starting the next uptrend.
The price of the 26th largest cryptocurrency has fallen by almost 5% in the past 7 days. Remarkably, the bearish move was maintained as real volume also fell. For example, XMR’s real volume passed the $ 800 million mark on May 7th. However, the time of writing reflects a value of only $ 17.83 million. It is noteworthy that these lows were last recorded in August last year.
Real XMR volume (blue) vs. XMR price (gray) | Source: Messari
Considering the dramatic decline noted above, the real cause of this condition is something to consider. Not just one, but many factors combined to devastate XMR.
First, the Sharpe ratio describes the risk-adjusted potential return on an asset that fell significantly in June, reaching -3.12 at press time.
When this ratio is negative, it usually implies a negative portfolio return (because the risk-free rate of return is higher than the portfolio rate of return). Negative returns are not intended to offer investors an incentive to buy. Unfortunately, XMR’s price will only get the support it needs if it goes back above zero.
Sharpe ratio of XMR (blue) vs. XMR price (gray) | Source: Messari
In addition, XMR’s market capitalization dominance is also gradually decreasing. For example, XMR’s market dominance on April 25 was 0.37%, compared to just 0.27% at the time of writing. This decline in the index adds to the declining burden on XMR.
Market capitalization of XMR (blue) at XMR price (gray) | Source: Messari
At this stage, it wouldn’t be fair to ignore Monero’s ecosystem-driven developments. As of July, 9 commits (individual changes to a file) had been made to a repository, and the month is not over yet. Additionally, the community-run Moneroexamples has 57 repositories on GitHub at the time of writing, while the Monero ecosystem has 34.
Although the community is working on several developments at the same time, Farcaster, a Bitcoin-Monero-Atom-Swap project, is still the most popular. In addition, COMIT Network has started the Monero-Bitcoin Atomic Swap in the mainnet. In addition, the data from Santiment shown that the number of developers who actively contribute to the XMR ecosystem is also increasing.
Given the number of projects connected to the network, the rising adoption rate, and long-term projections, it seems likely that the current wobble will go away in the long run. However, this altcoin doesn’t seem to have any noticeable prospects in the short term
At home at home
According to AMBCrypto