Weeks after the announcement went viral, the long-awaited Ethereum Classic Mystique hard fork is finally here. As expected, it activated at block 14,525,000 and ETC Cooperative already did to explain previously said that “this is not a controversial hard fork, just a regular protocol upgrade“.

The ETC Mystique hard fork was successfully activated just over half an hour ago at block 14,525,000:https://t.co/DCOeFeSEl7

Forkmon:https://t.co/BkeNwYbRjO

Mining Pools:https://t.co/pUV5oFR1KV

Congratulations and thank you everyone! pic.twitter.com/SQTJq2VexR

— ETC Cooperative (@ETCCooperative) February 12, 2022

At the end of last month, node readiness was only 35%. However, at the time of writing, overall node availability is around 65.4% calculation.

The larger focus of the current hard fork is compatibility. Mystique enables Ethereum London upgrades to run across the Ethereum Classic network. Initial hard fork offer as ECIP 1104. With this proposal, only certain parts or subsets of the London upgrade are now selectively activated on the ETC network.

This is also related to what Afri Schoedon did to speak in a conference chat a few days ago:

“I think the most important feature of Ethereum Classic right now is protocol equivalence with other EVM networks. I think that’s the biggest benefit of using this network now.”

Mystique includes implementations of EIP-3529 (Alternative Funding Reduction) and EIP-3541 (Reject New Contracts starting with byte 0xEF). On the contrary, it ignores EIPs related to fee market changes, BASEFEE opcodes, and difficulty bomb delays. Although the previous two editions “clash with ETC’s firm monetary policy,” the difficult bombshell delay no longer applies.

Mystique – Achievements for ETC?

The key question right now is how will the hard fork affect the price of ETC? Is Mystique a “savior” for the collapsing Ethereum Classic market? Well, the answer is yes, but also no.

In the hours immediately prior to the trigger, the ETC price rose almost 5% on the chart but fell shortly thereafter and has yet to reverse the downtrend. Here it is worth noting that ETC is down more than 15% on the price chart from February 11th to 12th.

ETC/USD | Source: TradingView

However, the above results only tell us half the story. In fact, it is worth noting that while ETC was among the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market last year, it has slipped to 34th place at press time.

Despite this, many in the community remain optimistic. For example, according to Etherplan’s Donald McIntyre, Ethereum Classic is “definitely the top 10 blockchain.” Actually at a interview last year he declared his ranking an anomaly, not a rule.

ETC at $1,000 thanks to BTC?

Additionally, the optimism of many in the ETC community is not limited to market tier. For example, McIntyre is still sticking to the $1,000 price target that it forecast last year. grandfather confirm ETC will reach this level in late 2021 and 2025 based on the current market cycle and Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to gold.

At the time, the analyst stated that the altcoin would be priced at 5% BTC by the end of 2021 thanks to the ETC’s growing base layer alongside Bitcoin. He predicts that the world’s largest cryptocurrency will top $125,000 by December 31, 2021, boosting ETC to $1,000.

It is clear that this prediction has not come true. Bitcoin hit a fresh ATH above $69,000 before a significant correction and is now trading just above $42,000. Meanwhile, ETC has never broken the $175 mark, let alone $1,000, and is trading at $33 at press time.

What does this mean for these forecasts? McIntyre, for his part, remains hopeful and to explain that external forces such as the macroeconomic situation and COVID-19 are merely postponing the “second phase of the crypto bull cycle” to 2022.

Too far-fetched forecast?

Is there anything that supports or at least hints at the possibility of such a bullish ETC price? Probably not.

According to Santiment, the volume of ETCs has declined significantly since their heyday in the summer of 2021. This decline coincides with the fall in the price of ETCs. What is unusual, however, is that ETC is down more than 15% over the past 72 hours. Social dominance indicators also failed to reach the levels seen in May and June.

Crowd (grey) and social dominance (red) | Source: Santiment

Although ETC’s development activity has picked up lately, it’s still a long way from last summer’s peak.

With Bitcoin moving sideways on the price chart and most analysts adjusting their 2022 forecasts to targets well below $100,000, it doesn’t look like there will be any strong bullish momentum for ETC in the near-term. However, in the extremely volatile realm, nothing is as certain as with cryptocurrencies.

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