Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Rise to 67% for 2026

Polymarket traders now price a roughly 66% chance that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 will be signed into law before the end of 2026, a jump of about 21 percentage points in a single day that reflects a sharp shift in sentiment around U.S. crypto regulation.

The prediction market’s event page for the CLARITY Act contract showed a 66% “Yes” probability with a last trade price of $0.69, suggesting some buyers paid even higher than the resting midpoint. Total volume on the contract has reached approximately $596,178.

The contract resolves “Yes” only if H.R.3633 passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law by December 31, 2026. A 66% reading means traders collectively price about a two-in-three chance of that happening, not a certainty.

What a 21-point jump in 24 hours signals

Polymarket’s gamma API recorded a one-day price change of 0.205 on the CLARITY Act contract. That implies the market moved from roughly 46% to the current 66% range within a single trading day.

Moves of this magnitude on political contracts are uncommon. They typically reflect either a concrete legislative catalyst or a rapid reassessment of previously known information. In this case, the timing aligns closely with public comments from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott.

On April 30, 2026, Scott said his committee is nearing consensus and hopes for a bipartisan CLARITY Act markup in May after securing all 13 Republican votes. That statement, coming from the committee with current jurisdiction over the bill, appears to be the catalyst traders repriced around.

Where the CLARITY Act stands in Congress

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, formally designated H.R.3633, was introduced on May 29, 2025. The House passed it on July 17, 2025 by a 294-134 vote, a bipartisan margin that signaled broad support in the lower chamber.

Congress.gov still lists the latest formal action as September 18, 2025, when the bill was received in the Senate and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. No floor vote or markup has been formally scheduled yet.

The path to enactment remains multi-step. Even if the Senate Banking Committee marks up the bill in May, the legislation must still clear the full Senate. The House Financial Services Committee noted in January 2026 that the Senate Agriculture Committee had advanced a separate digital-asset market-structure bill, meaning the two chambers will need to reconcile their packages before sending a final product to President Trump.

That reconciliation process, familiar to anyone following the parallel progress of stablecoin legislation like the GENIUS Act, adds both time and uncertainty. The fact that multiple committees in both chambers are working on overlapping digital-asset frameworks could either accelerate a deal or create new friction points.

Why the 2026 effective-date question matters for crypto

The CLARITY Act would establish a regulatory framework for how digital assets are classified and supervised in the United States. For crypto market participants, the distinction between the bill passing in 2026 versus slipping to 2027 or later is material.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that more clarity on the CLARITY bill would give comfort to crypto markets amid Bitcoin volatility. That framing positions the legislation as a potential sentiment stabilizer, not just a policy milestone.

Bitcoin traded at approximately $78,355 at press time, up 1.4% over the prior 24 hours. The broader crypto Fear and Greed Index sat at 39, firmly in “Fear” territory, even as CLARITY Act odds repriced sharply higher. That divergence between regulatory optimism on Polymarket and cautious sentiment across the broader market suggests traders are compartmentalizing legislative progress from near-term price action.

For readers tracking how regulatory developments interact with market structure, the revised CLARITY Act’s potential stablecoin provisions add another layer. If the bill passes with reward-bearing stablecoin language intact, it could reshape how protocols design yield-generating products in the U.S.

How to interpret the shift, and what could reverse it

A 66% probability is not a foregone conclusion. In prediction-market terms, it means traders see roughly a one-in-three chance the bill does not become law in 2026. That residual uncertainty reflects real obstacles: the Senate has not scheduled a floor vote, reconciliation with the House version is unresolved, and political priorities can shift quickly.

Polymarket odds can reverse as fast as they moved. If the May markup slips, if a key senator signals opposition, or if competing legislative priorities crowd out the CLARITY Act’s calendar window, the contract could retrace much of its recent gains.

The Galaxy research team has noted that timing pressure and unresolved issues around markup scheduling directly affect enactment odds. The closer the bill gets to the end of the Congressional session without a Senate vote, the steeper the path to passage becomes.

For readers watching funding rate signals alongside legislative catalysts, the interplay between regulatory momentum and derivatives positioning will be worth monitoring in the weeks ahead. A confirmed Senate Banking markup date would likely trigger another repricing, while silence could just as easily deflate current optimism.

FAQ about Polymarket’s CLARITY Act odds

What does a 67% Polymarket probability mean?

It means that traders on Polymarket collectively price about a two-in-three chance that H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, will be signed into law before December 31, 2026. This is a crowd-sourced pricing signal, not an official forecast or guarantee.

Why did the odds jump roughly 21 points in one day?

The repricing closely followed Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott’s April 30, 2026 comments indicating his committee is nearing bipartisan consensus and targeting a May markup. Large single-day moves on political prediction markets typically reflect traders reacting to concrete new information about legislative timing.

Do Polymarket odds guarantee the CLARITY Act will pass?

No. Prediction-market prices reflect the aggregate view of traders who have money at stake, but they have no special access to legislative outcomes. The bill still needs a Senate committee markup, a full Senate vote, reconciliation with the House version, and a presidential signature. Any of those steps could stall or fail.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.

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Haruto Nakamura

02 May 2026, 03:37:49 GMT +0000

Digital marketing pro 🚀 | Crafting content that connects Coincu.com | Educating on crypto trends, market moves, and meme coins 🥳 | Japan to the moon 🌙 #CryptoEducator #MarketMaker #Coincu

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