Is the decline in mining difficulty even greater? 5 things to see in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week on familiar territory after a solid bullish weekend that ended in a decline – what’s ahead?
With another rally to nearly $ 36,000 below the belt, the largest cryptocurrency is showing signs of strengthening, but old resistance levels remain intact.
The conditions are complex – the constant movement of miners and the associated price action has led many to warn and Bitcoin’s most accurate forecasters are facing a real test.
However, with fundamentals finally showing signs of life, the bulls may finally have something to celebrate.
Cointelegraph is looking at five factors when it comes to BTC / USD this week.
Stock records and the oil feud
It was another strange “roaring twenties” mood in major markets this week as the S&P 500 made new all-time highs for seven days in a row.
Encouraging economic data from the US and intervention by the Federal Reserve have pushed stock indices higher than ever in the past few weeks.
Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer Core Investments at AXA Investment Managers, based in the Netherlands, summarized in a note quoted by Bloomberg: “The market is priced for the continuation of a version of the drama that couldn’t have been built better.
An interesting twist is that oil, which is currently at the heart of other OPEC + production, is rising on its own, but raises concerns about how much fuel will be available in August.
Given the stability of the US dollar, it looks like stock history is a likely driver in the future, a scenario that has traditionally helped Bitcoin’s price move.
The basics are not out of the woods
Bitcoin may have experienced its greatest difficulty yet this weekend, but even that may not be enough to stabilize the ship.
At 27.94%, Saturday’s decline beats any previous decline, reflecting the impact of the Chinese war on mining on the Bitcoin network.
However, according to data from resource monitor BTC.com, the next correction could see an even bigger drop.
Since difficulty adjustments can only be estimated before they actually take place, and a lot can change during each two-week difficulty period, it is difficult to say how much the stats need to be reduced in order to respond.
With the recent decline, mining has become much more economically attractive for many current and potential participants. As a result, there will likely be more miners up and running over the next thirteen days, increasing the hash rate and thus potentially reducing the need to further reduce the difficulty.
A look at hash rate activity over the past few days suggests that a rollback may have occurred, with hash rates from just 83 EH / s in the last week to over 90 exahashes per second (EH / s) have risen.
However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is well on its way to losing another 28.68% in trouble.
“After adjusting to yesterday’s record level of difficulty of -27.9%, the Bitcoin level of difficulty is now similar to the level after it was halved last year,” the popular Twitter account Dilution-proof Note on Sunday together with an annotated difficulty table.
“However, the price is over + 263%. This shows how incredibly profitable Bitcoin mining is for efficient miners. “
The BTC price action hits $ 36,000
The decreasing difficulty had a good time at least – it was at this point that Bitcoin price action took a welcome spike and bounced back to the upper limit of its trading range.
For the remainder of the weekend, BTC / USD saw little resistance and rebounded about 5% before falling.
What could further limit the enthusiasm? For renowned analyst Rekt Capital, two well-known moving averages (MAs) could be a bear’s best friend in the coming days.
As Cointelegraph reported, BTC / USD experienced a “birthday death” last month. This refers to a 50-day MA crossover below the 200-day MA, an event that has traditionally been viewed as a bearish signal.
In fact, “Death Crosses” don’t always result in devaluation, but their reputation remains solid this year.
Now the current price strength actually makes sense if Bitcoin reaches the MA, which is currently hovering above the spot price.
“As soon as BTC breaks $ 36,000 … The next big resistance will be the ~ $ 38,000 area,” Rekt Capital to explain Add an overview chart on Sunday.
“Not only is this the high of the macro-consolidation area that Bitcoin is currently in … but the two $ BTC Death Cross EMAs (50 in blue and 200 in black) will likely act as appropriate resistance as well. Store it there. “
Trader Crypto Ed meanwhile warning on Monday the farm from last weekend is lost again.
“There will be a full retracement,” he said, adding that the market needs a “proper retest” of the lower lows in order to stimulate a truly resurgent bull run.
BTC / USD corrected from a high of $ 35,900 to $ 34,000, a level that is still being held at the time of writing.
Volume cannot float, housing can increase
The weekend rally is questionable for those looking for one classic market characteristic – volume.
Despite their rapid growth, the volume of their support remains small and their reliability and self-reliance have been questioned from the start.
On Monday, on-chain monitoring service CryptoQuant noted that volume is still declining, suggesting a lack of interest from key potential buyers.
“Both inflows and outflows dry up depending on the market volume. It looks like the whales are staying low without much action, ”the company said in a blog post.
“Side pressure on the market is likely to trigger a relatively strong reaction to price.”
However, on Saturday statistician Willy Woo noted a immediate increase in Bitcoin units that hold large amounts of BTC – a classic signal that whales are interested. This brings about a downward adjustment of the difficulty.
As Cointelegraph reported, other investor profiles also participate in the backup Bitcoin supply, in particular the so-called “Rick Astley” aka last resort.
“Mr. Astley says ‘little players get straight’.” Woo commented along with additional supporting data.
Investor confidence is slowly returning
How pessimistic is the average Bitcoin market participant?
This question has traditionally been answered by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, and if we believe its results this week, it may not be that bad.
Related: Bitcoin at Risk of Losing $ 30,000 on Grayscale’s Big GBTC Unlock in Two Weeks?
On Monday, Fear & Greed hit their highest score in nearly three weeks – 29/100. The last time this happened BTC / USD was on its way to the local high in June of over USD 41,000.
Fear & Greed uses a basket of factors to provide a sentiment estimate for the cryptocurrency market, helping to determine when an asset is overbought or oversold at a given price.
Its bullish spikes typically hit 95/100 or so, which leaves plenty of room for bitcoin to grow before “extreme greed” kicks in and causes a trip.
The index was 10/100 – “extreme fear” – on June 22nd before recovering.