Bitcoin can reach USD 100,000 by taking gold market share, total market capitalization can increase 100 times
Bitcoin failed to close above $ 100,000 in 2021, as many expected, but experts believe that it can still be achieved by capturing gold’s market share, albeit for an extended period of time.
In a notice released Tuesday to investors, Zach Pandl, co-head of Goldman Sachs’ global FX and EM strategy, theorized that when the largest cryptocurrency becomes 50 in the next 5 years, the price of BTC will rise % of the store market could exceed $ 100,000 for an average annualized return of 18%.
Zach Pandl – Goldman Sachs executive
While BTC’s current market cap is close to $ 811 billion, Goldman Sachs estimates Bitcoin’s moving-adjusted market cap to be less than $ 700 billion, one-fifth of the “store of value market”. However, the above market is not overcrowded. Goldman’s other store-of-value market that is attracting participants is gold, with $ 2.6 trillion in investment available.
Despite its recent ups and downs, Bitcoin is still at the top of Goldman Sachs’ 2021 return table with an annualized return of over 60%. Gold ranks last on the same chart with an annual loss of 4%.
Annual percentage return table | The source: Global Investment Research by Goldman Sachs
The experts at Goldman Sachs believe that the demand for BTC will not be affected by the heated debate about the energy consumption of the Bitcoin network. While a recent study claims that the Bitcoin ecosystem uses eight times more energy than Google and Facebook combined, the New York Digital Investment Group estimates that Bitcoin mining will account for no more than 0.4% of global electricity consumption over the next decade.
The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies could increase 100x by 2030
Former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes crypto market cap could increase 100x by the end of the decade.
At the time of writing, the total market cap of the global crypto sector is $ 2.03 trillion, and Pal told Bankless Brasil’s podcast that there is a “reasonable chance” that that number will climb to around $ 250 trillion if the models for the introduction of crypto networks are continued their current career.
Total Crypto Market Cap | Source: CoinMarketCap
Buddy has to compare current standards of other markets and a variety of assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate. He notes that they all have a market capitalization of “$ 250 trillion to $ 350 trillion”.
“The entire derivatives market is worth $ 1 trillion. I think there’s a fair chance this is a $ 250 trillion asset class, 100 times the fastest growth of any asset class in history. ”
This would support the idea that 3.5 billion people would be using it (by extrapolating the network’s growth numbers). So if there are 3.5 billion users by 2030, the market cap will be $ 250 trillion. ”
One thing is for sure, the market is not going straight up. Total market capitalization is down 6.8% in the past 24 hours while most major assets are down sharply. Bitcoin, ETH and BNB -8.3%, -12.1% and -10% respectively over the same period.
The recent decline may even come as a surprise to Pal, according to an interview on Jan. suspect Bitcoin will have a strong start into 2022 as it believes the institutional sell-off and profit-taking phase will be over by the end of the year.
“Looks like they are done because of last week’s bear market. Last week was the traditional week when everyone closed the book. ”
In November, Pal predicted that the bull cycle would not end in December like the previous cycles of 2015 and 2017, but would last until around June. Pal called capital inflows. The large amount of the organization in the first quarter is the main reason for this.
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