BTC on chain analysis: NUPL flashes are coming ahead of a strong rally in late 2017
In this article, Bitcoin Magazine looks at Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain metrics, more specifically, Net Unrealized Profit / Loss (NUPL). The index has yet to reach the zone it has reached during previous market highs. Additionally, it made a move that last happened in September 2017, just before the upside accelerated to an all-time high of $ 19,800.
NUPL was created to determine the total profit or loss from moving a coin. To determine this, each coin in circulation is balanced against the difference between the current price and the price on the last move.
Values above 0 indicate that the realized gain is greater than the realized loss, while values below zero indicate the opposite is also the case.
Historically, values above 0.75 indicate a top, while values below 0.25 indicate a low.
On February 21, NUPL hit an annual high of 0.748. Compared to the 2013 and 2017 market cycles, this is the only time that the 0.75 threshold is not exceeded.
However, from the moment NUPL first exceeded 0.5, it took 13 months to peak. This point in time coincides with the current market cycle as the NUPL exceeds 0.5 in October 2020.
In order for NUPL to peak above 0.75 as in previous cycles, the current cycle will be longer.
Looking at other on-chain indicators, the bull market is still intact, so a longer extension of the current market is very positive.
The source: Glass knot
Short term NUPL
At the end of May, the NUPL fell below 0.5 (blue circle). According to history, a drop below 0.5 could mark the end of the bull market.
In the meantime, however, the indicator has turned upwards and is currently at 0.62. Therefore, the uptrend remains intact.
The source: Glass knot
Another interesting development is that the indicator hit a lower high while the price hit a higher high. So far, this has only happened once (black line).
It did so in September 2017, just before the upside accelerated to an all-time high of $ 19,800.
This means that if history repeats itself, BTC still has one more strong rally to hit a new ATH before the current cycle ends.
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According to Beincrypto